Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. Projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP) which is the chance a team will win against a league-average opponent at a neutral site. The projections account for future opponent strength (Fut Opp), and projected wins (proj W) is a total of current and estimated future wins. The methodology is described more fully here.
TEAM GWP Fut Opp GWP Proj GWP Curr W Proj W AFC E BUF
0.63 0.39 0.72 5 11.5 MIA
0.67 0.37 0.77 3 10.0 NYJ
0.46 0.47 0.49 4 8.4 NE
0.35 0.53 0.32 5 7.9 AFC N PIT
0.63 0.51 0.62 5 10.6 BAL
0.46 0.55 0.41 4 7.7 CLE
0.35 0.52 0.33 3 6.0 CIN
0.19 0.52 0.18 0 1.4 AFC S TEN
0.57 0.46 0.62 7 12.5 IND
0.49 0.43 0.56 3 8.1 JAX
0.43 0.44 0.48 3 7.4 HOU
0.43 0.48 0.45 3 7.0 AFC W SD
0.74 0.44 0.78 3 9.2 DEN
0.45 0.53 0.42 4 7.8 OAK
0.38 0.53 0.35 2 5.1 KC
0.17 0.56 0.14 1 2.3 NFC E WAS
0.82 0.50 0.82 6 12.5 PHI
0.80 0.52 0.79 4 11.1 NYG
0.68 0.66 0.52 6 10.7 DAL
0.62 0.58 0.54 5 9.3 NFC N CHI
0.69 0.45 0.74 4 10.6 GB
0.49 0.54 0.45 4 8.0 MIN
0.50 0.49 0.50 3 7.5 DET
0.16 0.58 0.13 0 1.1 NFC S CAR
0.75 0.50 0.75 6 12.0 TB
0.63 0.50 0.63 5 10.1 ATL
0.62 0.56 0.57 4 9.1 NO
0.65 0.51 0.63 4 9.1 NFC W ARI
0.58 0.52 0.56 4 9.1 STL
0.32 0.50 0.32 2 4.9 SEA
0.31 0.58 0.25 2 4.2 SF
0.32 0.55 0.28 2 4.2
- Home Archives for October 2008
Standings Forecast Week 8
By
Brian Burke
published on 10/30/2008
in
standings forecast
with
7
comments
Week 9 Game Probabilities
By
Brian Burke
Win probabilities for week 9 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.
Pwin GAME Pwin 0.26 NYJ at
BUF
0.74 0.06 DET at
CHI
0.94 0.69 JAX at
CIN
0.31 0.52 BAL at
CLE
0.48 0.33 GB at
TEN
0.67 0.66 ARI at
STL
0.34 0.34 HOU at
MIN
0.66 0.85 TB at
KC
0.15 0.63 MIA at
DEN
0.37 0.66 ATL at
OAK
0.34 0.35 DAL at
NYG
0.65 0.86 PHI at
SEA
0.14 0.28 NE at
IND
0.72 0.21 PIT at
WAS
0.79
published on 10/30/2008
in
predictions
with
10
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