Standings Forecast Week 8

Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. Projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP) which is the chance a team will win against a league-average opponent at a neutral site. The projections account for future opponent strength (Fut Opp), and projected wins (proj W) is a total of current and estimated future wins. The methodology is described more fully here.

TEAM	GWP	Fut Opp GWP	Proj GWP	Curr W	Proj W
AFC E
BUF	0.63	0.39	0.72	5	11.5
MIA	0.67	0.37	0.77	3	10.0
NYJ	0.46	0.47	0.49	4	8.4
NE	0.35	0.53	0.32	5	7.9
AFC N
PIT	0.63	0.51	0.62	5	10.6
BAL	0.46	0.55	0.41	4	7.7
CLE	0.35	0.52	0.33	3	6.0
CIN	0.19	0.52	0.18	0	1.4
AFC S
TEN	0.57	0.46	0.62	7	12.5
IND	0.49	0.43	0.56	3	8.1
JAX	0.43	0.44	0.48	3	7.4
HOU	0.43	0.48	0.45	3	7.0
AFC W
SD	0.74	0.44	0.78	3	9.2
DEN	0.45	0.53	0.42	4	7.8
OAK	0.38	0.53	0.35	2	5.1
KC	0.17	0.56	0.14	1	2.3
NFC E
WAS	0.82	0.50	0.82	6	12.5
PHI	0.80	0.52	0.79	4	11.1
NYG	0.68	0.66	0.52	6	10.7
DAL	0.62	0.58	0.54	5	9.3
NFC N
CHI	0.69	0.45	0.74	4	10.6
GB	0.49	0.54	0.45	4	8.0
MIN	0.50	0.49	0.50	3	7.5
DET	0.16	0.58	0.13	0	1.1
NFC S
CAR	0.75	0.50	0.75	6	12.0
TB	0.63	0.50	0.63	5	10.1
ATL	0.62	0.56	0.57	4	9.1
NO	0.65	0.51	0.63	4	9.1
NFC W
ARI	0.58	0.52	0.56	4	9.1
STL	0.32	0.50	0.32	2	4.9
SEA	0.31	0.58	0.25	2	4.2
SF	0.32	0.55	0.28	2	4.2

Week 9 Game Probabilities

Win probabilities for week 9 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

Pwin	GAME	Pwin
0.26	NYJ at BUF	0.74
0.06	DET at CHI	0.94
0.69	JAX at CIN	0.31
0.52	BAL at CLE	0.48
0.33	GB at TEN	0.67
0.66	ARI at STL	0.34
0.34	HOU at MIN	0.66
0.85	TB at KC	0.15
0.63	MIA at DEN	0.37
0.66	ATL at OAK	0.34
0.35	DAL at NYG	0.65
0.86	PHI at SEA	0.14
0.28	NE at IND	0.72
0.21	PIT at WAS	0.79