Week 8 Efficiency Rankings

This week's ratings are listed below in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining variables.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is the ranking of offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

RANK	TEAM	LAST WK	GWP	Opp GWP	ORANK	DRANK
1	WAS	1	0.82	0.52	3	5
2	PHI	2	0.81	0.58	5	4
3	CAR	4	0.75	0.58	9	3
4	SD	3	0.74	0.54	4	16
5	CHI	7	0.70	0.57	10	7
6	NYG	8	0.68	0.42	1	15
7	MIA	12	0.67	0.52	2	24
8	NO	9	0.65	0.58	6	18
9	TB	14	0.64	0.58	17	2
10	BUF	5	0.63	0.49	21	10
11	PIT	6	0.63	0.48	26	1
12	ATL	11	0.63	0.53	7	21
13	DAL	10	0.62	0.53	12	11
14	ARI	13	0.59	0.61	8	19
15	TEN	15	0.57	0.38	18	8
16	MIN	17	0.50	0.55	22	9
17	GB	18	0.50	0.48	14	13
18	IND	20	0.49	0.51	13	14
19	NYJ	16	0.46	0.44	30	12
20	BAL	23	0.46	0.47	25	6
21	DEN	21	0.45	0.48	16	29
22	HOU	24	0.43	0.45	15	30
23	JAX	19	0.43	0.51	11	28
24	OAK	22	0.38	0.51	23	20
25	NE	27	0.35	0.45	27	26
26	CLE	28	0.35	0.55	20	23
27	STL	26	0.33	0.60	19	27
28	SEA	25	0.32	0.49	24	25
29	SF	29	0.33	0.48	31	17
30	CIN	30	0.19	0.53	32	22
31	KC	31	0.18	0.51	29	31
32	DET	32	0.17	0.56	28	32

The to-date season efficiency stats are listed below.

TEAM	OPASS	ORUN	OINTRATE	OFUMRATE	DPASS	DRUN	DINTRATE	PENRATE
ARI	7.1	3.3	0.022	0.027	6.9	4.0	0.014	0.41
ATL	6.4	4.8	0.024	0.009	6.4	4.7	0.021	0.35
BAL	5.7	3.8	0.036	0.030	5.4	2.8	0.042	0.48
BUF	6.8	3.8	0.019	0.028	6.0	3.8	0.018	0.30
CAR	7.1	3.7	0.022	0.018	5.5	4.0	0.019	0.39
CHI	6.5	3.6	0.017	0.019	5.7	3.7	0.035	0.40
CIN	4.1	3.4	0.034	0.035	6.4	4.3	0.017	0.36
CLE	5.3	3.8	0.029	0.024	6.5	4.7	0.045	0.40
DAL	7.0	4.6	0.030	0.036	5.7	3.9	0.008	0.51
DEN	7.0	4.6	0.027	0.032	6.8	5.4	0.009	0.36
DET	5.3	4.2	0.031	0.036	8.4	4.7	0.005	0.42
GB	6.7	3.7	0.018	0.028	5.3	4.9	0.056	0.61
HOU	6.8	4.3	0.033	0.029	7.2	4.5	0.026	0.21
IND	6.2	3.4	0.034	0.009	5.8	4.2	0.025	0.44
JAX	5.8	4.1	0.018	0.014	7.0	4.4	0.027	0.38
KC	4.4	4.4	0.034	0.025	7.3	5.6	0.031	0.28
MIA	7.6	3.8	0.014	0.020	7.2	3.7	0.019	0.30
MIN	5.8	4.3	0.033	0.028	6.3	2.9	0.018	0.46
NE	5.5	4.2	0.028	0.016	6.8	4.4	0.041	0.29
NO	8.1	3.4	0.023	0.031	6.4	4.3	0.021	0.50
NYG	6.7	5.1	0.018	0.014	5.5	3.8	0.038	0.50
NYJ	5.9	4.6	0.050	0.023	6.0	3.2	0.020	0.31
OAK	5.3	4.3	0.015	0.031	6.5	4.5	0.032	0.41
PHI	6.8	4.1	0.016	0.017	5.6	3.5	0.035	0.34
PIT	5.9	3.9	0.036	0.033	4.4	2.8	0.025	0.43
SD	8.1	3.9	0.026	0.017	6.4	4.0	0.019	0.37
SF	6.0	4.5	0.045	0.044	6.4	3.6	0.031	0.48
SS	4.7	4.4	0.036	0.010	6.9	4.0	0.009	0.30
STL	5.3	4.0	0.020	0.023	7.3	4.8	0.029	0.45
TB	5.6	4.3	0.026	0.014	5.5	3.6	0.046	0.48
TEN	5.9	4.3	0.026	0.017	4.9	3.7	0.048	0.38
WAS	6.7	4.7	0.000	0.016	5.5	3.8	0.018	0.35
Avg	6.2	4.1	0.026	0.023	6.3	4.1	0.026	0.39