WP Graphs for the 2001 and 2002 seasons are now available. (Check out the Pats dramatic Super Bowl win over St. Louis with the Adam Vinatieri FG in the closing seconds. In actuality, New England had the game in hand throughout the second half, and never had less than a 50% chance of winning since Ty Law's interception return for a TD in the 2nd quarter.)
That brings the archive to all games from 2001-2008. Only one more season to roll out. Also, I'm currently testing a simple search tool to list and rank games by their "excitement index" or "comeback factor." For example, you could list the most exciting games by your favorite team in the decade, or the biggest comebacks by any team in 2008, and so on.
2001 and 2002 WP Graphs Added
published on 6/15/2009
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For "excitement factor" couldnt you use the sum of the change in wining % to measure that?
Yes, that's what I'm currently doing. Each game has the EI noted on the bottom of the graph. The tool I mentioned is a database interface tool for sorting and ranking games according to the EI or CBF.
Future research idea: Is the model self-consistent -- that is, if the model says the win percentage for a team is 99%, what percent of the time does that team win? I'd probably group the time periods into 2-5 min buckets; take the max win percent and bucket into 5-10% groups (from 50-100). In each cell, find the %won.
Nice. Any chance of posting a chart of very high CBF and/or EI games?
Note from '02: CLE vs PIT Playoff game CBF of 100