Next up in the 2010 Koko fantasy rankings are the WRs. These projections are intended to establish the baseline minimum accuracy as the most reasonably naive predictions. The general explanation of the system along can be found in the 2009 QB post. Details on how WRs are projected can be found in the 2009 WR post.
One thing to note--This year I included an estimate of receptions per game for those whose scoring system credits each catch. I did not add them into the total projected points column, but it's easy enough to do on your own. The TE rankings did the same thing.
| Rank | Player | Yds/G | TDs/G | Fum/G | Recs/G | Pts/G | Proj Pts |
| 1 | Randy Moss | 66 | 0.5 | 0.03 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 89.5 |
| 2 | Andre Johnson | 77 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 89.3 |
| 3 | Miles Austin | 68 | 0.5 | 0.03 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 86.9 |
| 4 | Larry Fitzgerald | 60 | 0.5 | 0.02 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 85.2 |
| 5 | Reggie Wayne | 66 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 83.5 |
| 6 | Brandon Marshall | 64 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 83.1 |
| 7 | Roddy White | 62 | 0.5 | 0.03 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 82.6 |
| 8 | Vincent Jackson | 66 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 82.2 |
| 9 | DeSean Jackson | 66 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 82.1 |
| 10 | Sidney Rice | 68 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 80.6 |
| 11 | Braylon Edwards | 45 | 0.6 | 0.03 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 80.4 |
| 12 | Wes Welker | 76 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 79.6 |
| 13 | Marques Colston | 60 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 76.4 |
| 14 | Chad Ochocinco | 59 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 75.7 |
| 15 | Santonio Holmes | 66 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 72.9 |
| 16 | Hines Ward | 63 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 72.7 |
| 17 | Steve Smith | 59 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 72.7 |
| 18 | Derrick Mason | 58 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 71.3 |
| 19 | Calvin Johnson | 61 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 71.0 |
| 20 | Donald Driver | 59 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 70.0 |
| 21 | Mike Sims-Walker | 54 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 69.5 |
| 22 | Hakeem Nicks | 53 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 67.6 |
| 23 | Chris Chambers | 47 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 67.4 |
| 24 | Greg Jennings | 61 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 67.4 |
| 25 | Robert Meachem | 47 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 67.3 |
| 26 | Anquan Boldin | 60 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 67.2 |
| 27 | Mario Manningham | 55 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 66.3 |
| 28 | Percy Harvin | 51 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 65.2 |
| 29 | Laurent Robinson | 53 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 64.3 |
| 30 | Dwayne Bowe | 52 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 64.3 |
| 31 | Nate Burleson | 57 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 63.7 |
| 32 | Austin Collie | 45 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 62.2 |
| 33 | Mike Wallace | 48 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 62.2 |
| 34 | Roy Williams | 44 | 0.4 | 0.03 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 62.0 |
| 35 | Terrell Owens | 51 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 62.0 |
| 36 | Devin Hester | 54 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 61.9 |
| 37 | Jerricho Cotchery | 55 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 61.7 |
| 38 | Lee Evans | 43 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 60.5 |
| 39 | Pierre Garcon | 50 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 60.2 |
| 40 | Jeremy Maclin | 50 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 60.1 |
| 41 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 54 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 60.0 |
| 42 | Michael Crabtree | 54 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 59.8 |
| 43 | Santana Moss | 53 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 59.8 |
| 44 | Antonio Bryant | 47 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 59.6 |
| 45 | Chaz Schilens | 47 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 57.4 |
| 46 | Nate Washington | 41 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 57.3 |
| 47 | Jacoby Jones | 39 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 57.3 |
| 48 | Patrick Crayton | 43 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 56.6 |
| 49 | Steve Breaston | 48 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 56.6 |
| 50 | Johnny Knox | 41 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 55.8 |
| 51 | Devin Aromashodu | 38 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 55.8 |
| 52 | Donnie Avery | 42 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 55.8 |
| 53 | Devery Henderson | 50 | 0.2 | 0.02 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 55.3 |
| 54 | Brandon Lloyd | 55 | 0.2 | 0.02 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 54.6 |
| 55 | Kenny Britt | 46 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 54.6 |
| 56 | Bernard Berrian | 43 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 54.5 |
| 57 | Davone Bess | 48 | 0.2 | 0.03 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 53.9 |
| 58 | Laveranues Coles | 39 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 53.9 |
| 59 | Jabar Gaffney | 47 | 0.2 | 0.02 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 53.4 |
| 60 | Kevin Walter | 46 | 0.2 | 0.02 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 53.1 |
Which Steve Smith? And shouldn't the other one be here too?
You list 8 rec and 0.6 TD per game for Braylon Edwards. He had 45 receptions and 4 TD in 15 starts last year. I think you may have used his NYJ stats and his four games played with Cleveland for his projection.
I don't understand randy moss vs roddy white, he's projected to have 4 more yards per game as the only difference but that separates them by 6 spots and 7 points? What is going on there? Thanks.
I'm guessing it is due to the rounding for TDs/game. If Moss is at .54, and White is at .46, that is quite a big difference. Just a guess though.
Andy, my guess is NYG Steve Smith because there is no way Hakeem Nicks AND Mario Manningham would rank ahead of him. However, you question was the first that popped into my head and I'm sure why Carolina Steve Smith didn't make the cut.
Can you provide some color as to why Braylon Edwards would project to 8 rec a game, while the next closest (Welker) is at 6.6, and another large dropoff to 5.4 after that? Just eyeballing it, he looks to be around double the mean. Huge spike for a guy who's known best for his inability to catch even a cold.