Conference Championship Game Probabilities

Game probabilities for the conference champtionship games are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.

This week I estimate the value of Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith in terms of their effect on the probability of winning.

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3 Responses to “Conference Championship Game Probabilities”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Brian How much of Atlanta's rating is because of their ridiculously low Penalties total?Where would they rank with average Penalties?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    If they had an average penalty rate (about .41 yds per play), it would drop them 5% points. In other words they'd be at a .60/.40 disadvantage vs SF rather than the .55/.45 they are now.

    This is probably worth a full post.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Thanks Brian.

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