Join the crowd and follow the in-game win probability here. Throw in your two cents with the chat/comment feature.
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Join the crowd and follow the in-game win probability here. Throw in your two cents with the chat/comment feature.
How could Baltimore be at 95% at 14-3 but only 91% after going to 21-3 with less time on the clock? Something's fishy.
Once I get some coffee and purple-frosted donuts in me, I hope to see your article on when it makes sense to take the safety.
JR,
If there's one thing Brian has popularized/uncovered, it's that the most important thing that contributes to victory at the end of an NFL game is time off the clock for the team with a lead. In this case, 2-3 seconds (minimum) and 8 seconds (maximum) and getting 30 yards better field position (with no risk of a freak blocked punt) were well worth the downside that a field goal ties the game.
I got ridiculed at my SB party for saying the 49ers should have taken the delay of game instead of the timeout on 3rd and goal from the 5. The calculator seems to say it's only a 5% drop in TD probability from the 5 vs. the 10, though I would think that can't be right. Still, when will coaches learn that five yards are less valuable than 40 seconds in these types of situations?
I think they should've taken the delay of game on 4th and 5, with the defense showing blitz like that.
@kos: I wonder if the smaller-than-expected drop in TD probability is because it opens up more options for the offense from the 10.
How did it become almost a 50-50 game again early in the second quarter?
Russel-There is definitely some error throughout the model. It's far from perfect. But the answer is that it's primarily because of who had the ball and where they were on the field.
Alan-It was 7-3 and SF was driving in BAL territory.
Ah, right--and then the fumble. Thanks, had forgotten that.