Game Probabilities - Week 10

Game probabilities for week 10 are available at the New York Times. This week I take a quick look the changing of the Guard in the AFC North.

The model has not been a fan of the Ravens, even during last season prior to their playoff run to a Super Bowl victory. This season, the model says Baltimore's "true" winning percentage is 0.333, which isn't far off from their actual 0.375 mark (3-5), particularly considering they've had a slightly soft schedule. The Ravens' passing efficiency differential is -0.5 yards per pass play, which is 22nd in the league. But their biggest problem is a costly inability to run the ball. The Ravens offense is last in yards per carry, and is a distant last in run success rate...

Note: In my write-up, I mistakenly said CIN hosts Baltimore. It's actually the other way around. The game probability numbers are correct though.

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14 Responses to “Game Probabilities - Week 10”

  1. David Kravitz says:

    CIN won the division in 2005 too. Steelers beat them in the playoffs and won the SB, but the division was won by CIN.

  2. Nate says:

    Brian, the Bengals are visiting the Ravens. Your write-up says the opposite.

  3. Nate says:

    (Otherwise I liked the analysis.) :)

  4. Wez says:

    How many percentage points do you think Aaron Rodgers vs. Seneca Wallace is worth?

  5. Brian Burke says:

    I did a full analysis of that a couple years back. I think when Kitna took over for Romo. PFR did some stuff before me on it too. I wish I could find the article. In GB's case I'd guess it's close to a difference of 15%.

  6. Brian Burke says:

    Also-Sincerely apologize for the slight to the 2005 Bengals. I did fact- check, but PFR has PIT on top of the division in '05:
    I assumed b/c PIT was listed first they won the tie break.

    Also here is the 3-part series Doug did:

    But I can't find the post I did about YPA and int rate drop-off when going to a backup QB. 1.5 YPA or so? Still looking.

  7. Wez says:

    Searching 'Kitna' I think I found what you are referring to: (with a fun debate of the topic in the comments) (looks like a change from 83% to 63% for the first Romo to Kitna game)


  8. Anonymous says:

    I also remember an article about replacing Matt Schaub with TJ Yates done a year or two ago.

  9. Matt says:

    Wouldn't these game probabilities be a better starting point for the Game Win Probability graphs rather than 50/50?

    Currently the Game Win Probablity graph don't capture the difference that an underdog team needs to make up going into the game.

  10. Anonymous says:

    Brian (or anyone at ANF) - random question. You had an article back in 2009 about adjusting adjusted yards per attempt where you said the modern expected points for an interception makes more sense at 60 than at the classic 45.

    In the glossary however, you still have the definition of ANYPA as 45*interception. Just wondering what you're actually using in the model these days.

  11. Anonymous says:

    anyone at ANS*

  12. Anonymous says:

    @ Brian Burke

    "But I can't find the post I did about YPA and int rate drop-off when going to a backup QB. 1.5 YPA or so? Still looking."

    1.5 YPA?? No way ever. I am just into a study of back up vs starting QBs since 1980. I have the AFC finished. True starting QBs have a .524 winning Pct... The YPA difference i can´t tell, since I did it another way: I looked at every true starter vs back-ups on the same team (with at least 100 Atts and one game started). Around 52% of starters had a higher YPA at the end of season, 48% of the (qualified) backups had a higher YPA at seasons end. After enough 1st team reps, game film, and playing time, the difference between the starter and backup diminishes more and more.
    The talent level is amazingly thin at the NFL. Starters get valued wayyy too much. But I said this anyway before I started the study.

    Karl, Germany

  13. Stat Guy says:

    With the PIT-BUF game, Pittsburgh's lack of turnovers says that Buffalo will win.

  14. Brian Burke says:

    To answer the question above about 60 vs 45 yds for an int. The 60 yds is for an int on 1st down. Because EP values are always highest on 1st down, the impact of a turnover is largest if it occurs on 1st down. An easy way to think about it is that a turnover on 4th down isn't so painful. It doesn't really cost you possession, just field position.

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