Playoff Projections - Week 10


All of the numbers below come from Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com. His app uses the win probabilities from the ANS team efficiency model to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining NFL games thousands of times. Based on current records, our estimates of team strength, and knowledge of the NFL's tie breaking procedures we can come up with some pretty interesting predictions of how each team will fare come the end of the season. If you want to use a different model or just fiddle with the numbers by hand, go ahead and download the app yourself.

Week 10's big movers

Because New Orleans won, Carolina's chances of winning the division stayed pretty static, but the chances of a Panthers wild card berth sky rocketed. The 32% bump came almost entirely at the expense of the team they beat, San Francisco. Both teams are now 6-3 but Carolina holds the head-to-head tie breaker, which is especially significant because neither team is likely to win its division. San Francisco now only has a 4% chance of beating out the Seahawks in the West.


Philadelphia is now the distinct favorite (68%) over Dallas in the NFC East. Both teams are 5-5 and Dallas won the first matchup, but the ANS model thinks the Cowboys are mediocre and the Eagles are a top 5 team. It seems entirely possible that Dallas will once again be in a week 17 winner-takes-all match to determine the division champ.

Last weekend was the worst case scenario for the Packers. The loss to the Eagles coupled with the Lions' win puts them in second place. The Lions are a near 2:1 favorite to win the division, and that is not accounting for the Rodgers injury. To secure a wild card spot, the Pack would likely have to pass either San Francisco or whoever loses in the NFC South.

Losses for the Bengals and Colts mean that the AFC West has a death grip on the #1 spot in the conference. The model now favors Denver more strongly because its opinion of Kansas City's strength of schedule continued to drop during their bye week. Despite their record, the Chiefs seem to be a pretty mediocre team.

A first look at draft order

For weeks there have been discussions of whether Jacksonville or Tampa would get the first overall pick in this year's draft. NFL-forecast predicts this as well, so we are in luck.

Despite having the same record, the Jags are big favorites over the Bucs to pick first: 60% vs. 24%. (Minnesota and Atlanta are tied for third most likely at a distant 6%.) The ANS model thinks Jacksonville is a much worse team, with a GWP value of 0.21 compared to 0.30. This is also reflected in Jacksonville's abysmal -19.6 average point differential when the next worst in the league is -8.7. The simulations suggest both teams will likely win 1-3 more games this year and are nearly guaranteed top 5 picks.

Minnesota, Atlanta, and Oakland are the only other teams that can be confident at this point in a top 10 selection.

High leverage game of the week: IND @ TEN

As usual, the biggest leverage game is a battle between divisional rivals. A win benefits your schedule, hurts theirs, and helps with tie breakers at the end of the season. If Indy can pull off this win then they will have the division essentially wrapped up at 97% confidence. Tennessee would drop all the way to a 7% chance of making the playoffs with a loss, and almost all of that is their chance of being the 6th seed. A win would boost them up to a 33% chance.

The Jets, Packers, and Eagles are the individual teams with the most at stake this week. New York is on the cusp of that 6th AFC spot and Green Bay and Philadelphia need the wins because of their tight divisional races.

Washington, Houston, Oakland, and Buffalo must all win this week to hold on to what slim hopes they still have. A loss would drop all of them below a 1% chance of getting in.

The Numbers

AFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NE841410
NYJ1359217
MIA2174041
BUF193852
AFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
CIN92710
CLE6482917
BAL1184040
PIT1272943
AFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
IND841420
TEN1355311
HOU331615
JAC01694
AFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
DEN732600
KC277210
SD018711
OAK001189
NFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
PHI682651
DAL2846224
NYG3214729
WAS172567
NFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
DET613270
GB3240280
CHI728641
MIN00199
NFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NO811900
CAR198100
ATL008119
TB001981
NFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
SEA96400
SF480161
ARI016759
STL01990

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
DEN67510261100
KC25100712100
NE52532221893
CIN24729140496
IND11725420387
NYJ025613043
TEN01390821
CLE012301117
MIA011101012
BAL0001045
SD000011213
PIT0001034
HOU0002025
BUF0001022
JAC0000000
OAK0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
SEA74193030100
NO23517111698
CAR11341342376
DET1939134974
SF2200353068
PHI0421431372
GB0219113944
CHI00422615
DAL002250230
ARI000071118
NYG0003004
WAS0001001
STL0000000
ATL0000000
MIN0000000
TB0000000

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4 Responses to “Playoff Projections - Week 10”

  1. Anonymous says:

    I'm aware your model really likes Philly and rates Dallas as middle of the pack, but it still seems a bit off that Philly can be so heavily favored for the division given they have equal records and the tie-breakers all currently favor Dallas. Cowboys have the h2h victory, and a 3-0 divisional record compared to Philly's 2-2.

    In all likelihood, to win the division Philly is going to have to win in Dallas. Otherwise they will need to win two additional games the rest of the way. Even assuming Philly does win in Dallas they are likely going to have to better Dallas the rest of the way.

  2. Anonymous says:

    I tend to think that Philly and Dallas are going to come down to the wire, and division will be decided on the last game of the season. (It does have a certain poetry.) As far as the model is concerned Dallas also has a less favorable schedule between now and then. Consider they've got a match with Green Bay, and a couple of more competitive road games.

  3. J.D. Krull says:

    I wonder if their model comes up with an estimate of how good each team is, and then assumes that estimate is right when simulating the game results...or if it also includes uncertainty in team strengths. For instance, if a team suffered some major injuries, they would be a lot weaker. Factoring in that possibility would help the underdogs more than the favorites.

  4. Steve says:

    @JD

    It doesn't so it is a little overconfident. The bias is not that big in most cases but the "locks" aren't as tight of locks as it says.

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