How Much Did Super Bowl XL's Officiating Affect The Outcome?

Bill Leavy, the referee of Super Bowl XL between the Steelers and Seahawks (Win Probability graph), recently apologized for his mistakes in the game. "I kicked two calls in the fourth quarter and I impacted the game, and as an official you never want to do that. It left me with a lot of sleepless nights, and I think about it constantly," he admitted.

Leavy is referring to two critical calls he made in the 4th quarter. But there were a couple other controversial calls earlier in the game, each going against the Seahawks. In this post, I'll look at each situation and measure their impact on the game. Each of the calls were questionable to varying degrees, and I'll leave it up to others to decide whether they were defensible or not.

What Happens To The Vikings If Favre Does Retire?

How big is the difference between Brett Favre and the Vikings' next best option? Last year a resurgent Favre led the Vikings to a first-round playoff bye.Tarvaris Jackson is currently the #2 QB. If we replaced Favre's passing performance with what we could expect from Jackson in the tried-and-true win-efficiency model, we can estimate how many fewer games Minnesota could expect to win.

Putting 'The Catch' in Perspective

To mark David Tyree's recent retirement, The Fifth Down linked to Shutdown Corner's take on his signature accomplishment, "The Catch." How does that play rank with other iconic NFL plays? If only there were a way to put a number on how critical a play was toward winning a game...

Fortunately, there's WPA to give us the answer. From the win probability analysis of Super Bowl XLII:

+0.19 for Tyree’s catch

+0.41 for the TD pass to Burress.

Sadly, few will remember the 2-yd gain by Jacobs on 4th and 1 to keep the drive alive, but that play had a WPA of +.21. If Tyree doesn’t make the catch, the drive is still alive--it was ‘only’ 3rd down. If Jacobs is stuffed—that’s all she wrote.

Of course, there’s no good way to quantify the style points for Tyree’s miraculous grab or Manning’s escape from the sack.

I especially like comment #6 at the Fifth Down's post from Jay who describes the unquantifiable aspects of the play especially well. In fact, my Giants-fan friend prefers to call it 'The Play' rather than 'The Catch.' After all, the play has far more than just one player pinning the ball to his helmet.

Defensive Player Corrections

Just a note that individual defender statistics have been recomputed. Previously, when a player started some games at one position and started some games at another position, his statistics were divided among those positions. In other words, if a player had +0.50 WPA at DT and +0.25 WPA at DE, you'd see him with +0.50 WPA on the DT page and you'd see him with +0.25 WPA on the DE page. You'd also see him listed twice on his team page, once under DEs and once under DTs.

Now, each defensive player gets assigned a single position for each season based on the position he played most frequently.

Pre-Season Predictions Are Still Worthless

Last year I started my stint at the NY Times by calling attention to just how bad NFL preseason predictions are. I compared the “advanced” projections for team win totals compiled by a fellow stats website called Football Outsiders to two benchmarks. They had predicted doom and gloom for the Jets last year, and my article was intended to relieve Jets fans of needless worry. As it happened, the Jets made the playoffs and went all the way to the AFC Championship game.

The first benchmark was a mindless 8-win prediction for every team. Let's call this the Constant Median Approximation system, or CoMA for short. This benchmark represents zero knowledge. It’s what you would guess if you had no information at all about any of the NFL teams except that they each play 16 games. Certainly anyone can out-predict a coma patient, right?

Is The NFL Better Off Without A Team In LA?

Los Angeles has been without a football team since 1995 when the Rams moved to St. Louis and the Raiders returned to Oakland. As the nation’s second largest metropolitan area, it seems odd that the NFL wouldn’t have a single team call LA its home. Talk of finding a team for LA, either by expansion or by relocation, has been growing while the civic leaders clear the path for a possible new stadium.

It may be that the NFL would be foolish not to take advantage of such a large market, but perhaps the current 32 teams are better off leaving LA wanting for a team.

Haynesworth's Value

Albert Haynesworth’s refusal to adjust to the Redskins’ new 3-4 scheme has attracted criticism from all directions. The coaches, the media, former Redskin greats, and the fans are fed up with the disgruntled tackle’s attitude. His teammates have been especially harsh. But for all his criticism for both his on and off-field antics, his level of play in 2009 was statistically consistent with previous years.

Player Salaries and Economic Rent

A couple months ago, I wrote about rookie salaries--whether or not they're "too high," and how the NFL's next labor agreement is certain to reduce them. With all the recent attention on NBA free agents, some are wondering why a backup point guard on the Orlando Magic is paid more money than NFL superstar Tom Brady. The issue of player salaries is an emotional one because it touches on our human instincts for fairness.

First, let's look at some facts. From USAToday's salary databases, here are the 2009 salaries for the three major professional sports leagues, plus something I'm told is called "hockey."