Donovan McNabb was an offensive force in the National Football League for many years with the Philadelphia Eagles but, as we all know, all good things must eventually come to an end. The veteran quarterback's reign of dominance - eight seasons of 3,000+ passing yards - appears to have come to a screeching halt with the emergence of rookie Christian Ponder.
The former Florida State star appears to have taken the starting QB job away from McNabb after leading the Minnesota Vikings club to .500 record in the last two contests, thanks to back-to-back games with 200+ passing yards. The Vikings sit in last place in the NFC North after getting off to an 1-5 start; since switching to the rookie QB, the team has gone 1-1 and narrowly missed coming back against Green Bay in Week 7.
Christian Gives Minnesota Something to Ponder
Playoff Probabilities: Week 9
Courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com, I bring you the latest playoff probabilities for each team.
These are generated with the help of the NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season 5,000 times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.
The AFC North: A Closer Look
Though not doing much to shake up the team rankings, Pittsburgh's win over New England helped the Steelers further solidify their position in the AFC and increased their overall playoff probability by 24 points to 90%. As of now, the model sees the North as being more or less a two-team race between the Steelers and the Ravens, with one of these two winning the division in 92% of simulations.
WP: Median Cap Dollars Spent on O-Lines
What do Bill Gates and Redmond, Washington have to do with Trent Williams and Ashburn, Virginia? And what can Barry Bonds and papayas tell us about offensive lines?
This week's post at the Washington Post's Insider provides the answers. It's a look at how much the Redskins spend on depth on their offensive line compared with the current division leaders. Last season I wrote that their off-season needs were (in order): offensive line, offensive line, followed by offensive line. They didn't listen.
You might want to check this one out, even if you're not a Redskins fan.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. I take a detailed look at the NYG-NE match-up. Also, there are a couple very kooky games this week. Please see my comment under the main post for a brief explanation.
Predictability Kills
"I've always believed that it's important to show a new look periodically. Predictability can lead to failure."
- T. Boone Pickens
Predictability seems to be detrimental in many aspects of life, but its presence in football can be a death sentence for an offense. Offensive coordinators are in the business of hoodwinking defenses, and a large part of their ability to accomplish that task is being unpredictable. This is one of the major reasons offenses should throw more on 1st down and from run-oriented formations. The best offensive minds utilize defensive expectations to the fullest extent.
To examine the effects of predictability on an offense, one need only look at Jason Garrett's play-calls for the Dallas Cowboys over the past couple of seasons. Starting in 2009, Garrett began heavily implementing a formation known as "Double Tight Strong" (and variations of it with minor deviations).
The Under-Reported NFL Story of 2011
Longtime reader and blogger Eddy Elfenbein crunches the numbers on NFL kicking accuracy. If you think passing numbers are through the roof, check this out:
This season, kickers have nailed 45 of their 63 attempts from 50 yards or more. That’s more accurate than the league was from any distance 25 years ago. Since 1994, long range accuracy has doubled and long-range attempts-per-game are up by more than 63% from just five years ago.
There's bound to be some regression to the mean, and bad weather has yet to set in, but those numbers are a very high perch from which to fall and they're part of a very long-term trend.
Philadelphia Dismantles Rob Ryan's Defense
NBC managed to escape the futility of the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football last week, but the result was hardly different. It was a solid matchup between the Cowboys and Eagles on hand -- the 4th ranked team at the 11th ranked team at the time. But instead of a compelling matchup between heated division rivals, primetime football fans were dealt utter decimation once again. The Eagles jumped out to 14-0 lead in the first quarter and wouldn't look back, leading 24-0 by halftime and finishing with a 34-7 rout.
The Eagles established their superiority early and sustained it throughout, not only in terms of total score, but also by more advanced measures like success rate, yards per play, and expected points added. Observe:
Team Rankings: Week Nine
- While the Texans were able to dispose of the Jaguars and hold on to the number one ranking, there was a ton of movement in the top-12 that cannot go unnoticed.
- While they are still off by .03 GWP, Green Bay is threatening the Texans coming off their bye week. Could a convincing win on the road against the Chargers push them on top of the ladder? Probably not, unless the Texans stumble against the lowly Browns. And that's not going to happen. It just won't.