The Real Power Rankings

I usually save these for the Roundup, but because this is so clever it gets its own post.

Implied power rankings according to point spread markets, complete with a very clever Moneyball reference.

WP: Hidden Value of the Deep Vertical Pass

This week at the Post I took a look at how deep vertical passes are a vital part of an offensive scheme. This is another bit of research that applies league-wide, but uses the Redskins win over the Seahawks last Sunday as an example.

Here's an excerpt:

Playoff Probabilities: Week 13

Welcome to this week's edition of playoff probabilities, in which we bastardize Bible verses and take a closer look at the NFC wild card race all in the same post! As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season 5,000 times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Let us therefore come boldly to the throne of Tebow, that we may obtain touchdowns and find victory in time of need. (Broncos 4:16)

In addition to further feuling Tebow-mania, Denver's win in last week's high-leverage game bumped the Broncos' overall playoff probability up 18 points to 36%, putting them right in the middle of things in the AFC. And no one's loving it more than this guy. On the other side of the ball, after starting the season 4-1, San Diego's sixth straight loss all but eliminated them from playoff contention, dropping them 14 percentage points to just 1%.

In the NFC, meanwhile, the Falcons were the big winner, as an Atlanta win combined with losses by both Detroit and Chicago to leave all three teams at 7-4 and tied for the lead in the NFC wild card race. Below we'll take a look at each team's remaining schedule in turn. The number in parentheses is their overall playoff probability, and, for reference, I've listed the degree of difficulty (DOD) of their remaining schedule, obtained by averaging the GWP of their remaining opponents after adjusting to reflect home-field advantage.

Weekly Game Probabilities

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. The write up is a condensed version of the Tebow analysis I just posted.

Sebastian Janikowski Sinks The Bears From Afar

If there was ever a game prepared for a kicker, it was Sunday's Oakland Raiders contest against the Chicago Bears. The Raiders brought an offense with big play potential but with a low success rate against a Bears team among the league leaders in preventing successes. Many situations in football call for the coach to go for it on fourth down more often than we see in practice. This game, however, presents one scenario in which it is often smart to take the points if they're available -- the combination of a misfiring offense and a brick wall defense could tilt the field position game beyond reversal.

Of course, getting the three points on a field goal attempt isn't so easy as just calling the kicker and his support team onto the field. Field goals are risky propositions -- anywhere past the 30-yard mark and we encounter at least a 10% chance of failure. The lack of a capable field goal kicker could tilt the equation right back to supporting repeated fourth down conversion attempts.

Team Rankings: Week Thirteen

Despite absolutely torching the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, the Saints only move up one spot while beating a top-10 club. Why? The Giants still gained over 450 total offensive yards on New Orleans, and the rankings system doesn't factor in teams playing with a big lead. In reality, I'd probably move them above New England into the four hole, but we need to remember the Saints have lost on the road to both St. Louis and Tampa Bay, so they may need home field advantage to win games in the playoffs.

Tebow

Is Tebow the reason the Broncos are winning? Every third news item or blog post I come across seems to be pulling its collective hair out, pondering the Broncos' 5-1 run. He's a winner! No, he's no good! He can't throw! But he runs! He doesn't turn the ball over! He doesn't take sacks! He puts his team in a hole! He's clutch! On one hand this, on the other hand that. If only their were a single number, tuned precisely to tell us how much a player contributes to his team's fortunes...That would settle the question.

Fortunately, that's what Win Probability Added (WPA) does. As a starter in 2011, Tebow has a -0.18 WPA. Suppose the football gods gave us a test with the question, On net, has Tebow helped or hurt the Broncos' chances of winning since he became the starter? Show your work. I'd write down: Hurt. -0.18 WPA. And I'd be marked correct.

We could end the discussion right there if we wanted, but that's no fun.

An Unlikely & Unsung Bengals Conversion

Down 7-0, just 4 minutes into the game, the Secretary of our Trent Dilfer Club, Andy Dalton, stepped onto the field for the first time.  After a 1-yard run, 10-yard holding penalty, and incomplete pass, the Bengals were backed into a 3rd-and-19 on their own 14.  Dalton drops back, hits Andrew Hawkins who goes for exactly 19, converting to a new set of downs.  Here's a look at how the drive unfolded using our Markov model: