The model was never as accurate as it was in week 5. In week 6 it was 7-7, only 50% correct. My 5-year old son regularly does better than that just by picking the team with more wins (and breaks a tie with home field advantage). Over the rest of the season the model came out to be less accurate than I had hoped, based on how well it could predict (retroactively) the 2005 season. I would understand why after the season concluded.
But at the time, I kept using the model for more analysis. I modified the model somewhat to emphasize the latest 4 weeks of games more than those early in the season. I also could tell that home field advantage appeared too powerful as a predictor, so I reduced it slightly.
In the end the model was accurate only about 65% of the time.
The 2006 Season Continues
published on 1/26/2007
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