Welcome to my page on NFL statistical analysis.

This site is where I plan to document my findings and interpretations of various statistical observations on the National Football League. This site is not intended to be widely read as much as it is to simply document my current hobby.

Over the course of the 2006 season, I began to use econometric statistical tools to understand more about the NFL. While most NFL sites, including this one, gravitate toward predicting winners, I was more interested in the internal workings of "why" things happened the way they do. Naturally, the outcomes of games are of interest, but I like to dig deeper and understand the game more than guessing winners and losers. What most interests me is learning something that can change the way the game should be played.

For example, my first question had to do with whether defense or offense was more important to winning. It began as a water-cooler topic at work, but I thought hey, instead of debating this in circles, we can get a definitive answer. I simply compared the correlation coefficient of defensive and offensive performance measurements with team wins. I don't even remember the answer (I think defense came out as more important, at least in 2005).

Throughout the 2006 season, I built econometric models of season win totals and game-by-game outcomes. I learned that a lot of things that are accepted as conventional wisdom in the NFL are not true.

I also learned there are a thousand other guys just like me out there doing the same stuff. But they had fancy websites, the vast majority of which focus on gambling--which does not interest me. So I'm throwing my hat into the ring and will post some of the interesting things I've found.

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2 Responses to “Welcome.”

  1. Anonymous says:


  2. Jacklyn Franklin says:

    Great job! Great site!!!!

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