Exciting Sunday So Far

I'm a Comcast subscriber so I'm loving my Red Zone Channel, and I highly recommend it. The most exciting games of the day (according to WP) were the Baltimore-San Diego game and the Oakland-Kansas City game. Both came down to the last drive. The biggest comebacks were in the Houston-Tennessee and Pittsburgh-Chicago games. Chicago's comeback wasn't the classic come-from-behind type. But they were looking at a 10% WP until the missed field goal attempt.

Live WP for the New York-Dallas game.

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8 Responses to “Exciting Sunday So Far”

  1. Brian Burke says:

    Sunday night's game takes the cake. EI=7.1

  2. Ted says:

    Is there any statistically significant correlation between the Chargers' WP and the probability of Phillip Rivers whining at the officials? I'm guessing no, as his whining appears to be nearly constant through the first two weeks.

  3. James says:

    I know you're being facetious, but wouldn't that be an inverse relationship?

  4. Anonymous says:

    Please comment on Jauron's decision yesterday to kick a FG (to go up by 13 points instead of 10) toward the end of yesterday's Bills/Bucs game.

    The Bills were already up by 10, about 2 mins to go in the game, TB did not have all of its time-outs, and the the ball was on the Bucs 2. It was 4th-and-1.

    It seems like the correct decision, by far, is to go for it. Getting a first down, or a TD, ends the game. Failing to convert leaves TB still down 10 points deep in their own territory.

    On the other hand, even a successful FG still leaves the margin at 2 scores and also ends up conceding field position by kicking off to them.


  5. Anonymous says:

    Your WP graph for the CIN/GB game says that the Bengals had only a 66% chance of winning prior to the last play (which was a false start penalty when the Packers failed to get set when trying to spike the ball).

    But assuming they spiked the ball successfully, the Packers had a 34% chance of winning from the 35-yard line down by 7 with time for one play remaining. And assuming a touchdown ties the game and overtime is 50/50, doesn't that suggest that the probability of scoring on one play from the 35 is 68%? That doesn't seem even remotely realistic.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Actually, they were at the 10-yard line prior to the false start penalty. Still, 68% seems too high to be the probability of scoring on one play from the 10.

  7. Brian Burke says:

    Yeah. That's too high, certainly. I'll take a look at that.

  8. Anonymous says:

    One thing I note is that it can be hard to find the lattice points of the graph. For a while I was thinking that your model always said kicking a FG lowered win probability, but the problem was I could only find the "before the 3rd down play" and "after the fg kick" lattice points. Obviously failing to make the first down decreases win probability. Why is it so hard to find the lattice point for the 4th down?

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