The newest version of the in-game win probability site is going live tonight for the last remaining games of the preseason. You can also see the graphs from Thursday's games. I realize no one cares who actually wins any of these games, but I'd like to test it out before the real games begin. Please leave any comments or bugs on this post. A few notes below:
-For now, play descriptions aren't available until after the week's games are over. But if you hover over the graph, you'll see the down,distance, yard line, and score at the time of the play. Full play descriptions, like I have in the archive, will be my next addition.
-Some of the extra advanced stats, including 1st down probability, current expected points, and scoring probabilities are off line for now. I'll bring them back very soon.
-The WP model underneath hasn't changed, but I am working on a major upgrade to it. I like the model now, but it's very noisy and there are some situations on which it relies on sparse data. The new improvements will drastically reduce the noise, which will make the WPA estimates for smaller plays much more accurate.
-The new graphs are flash based, which are not mobile-friendly. I intend to continue the ajax/javascript version which is suited well for iPhones and Blackberries.
As always, it's wp.advancednflstats.com.
Live In-Game Win Probability 2.0
published on 9/04/2009
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