The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.
Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.
GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.
Click on the table headers to sort:
| RANK | TEAM | LAST WK | GWP | Opp GWP | O RANK | D RANK |
| 1 |  IND | 1 | 0.87 | 0.44 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 |  NO | 2 | 0.83 | 0.46 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 |  DEN | 3 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 10 | 1 |
| 4 |  PIT | 5 | 0.74 | 0.45 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 |  DAL | 7 | 0.72 | 0.44 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 |  GB | 9 | 0.71 | 0.38 | 6 | 11 |
| 7 |  NYG | 4 | 0.71 | 0.43 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 |  SD | 8 | 0.69 | 0.49 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 |  NE | 6 | 0.67 | 0.46 | 9 | 16 |
| 10 |  CIN | 17 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 13 | 4 |
| 11 |  ARI | 12 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 17 | 2 |
| 12 |  MIN | 14 | 0.55 | 0.43 | 12 | 23 |
| 13 |  BAL | 18 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 11 | 24 |
| 14 |  PHI | 11 | 0.55 | 0.33 | 16 | 5 |
| 15 |  HOU | 16 | 0.54 | 0.46 | 7 | 32 |
| 16 |  JAC | 15 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 15 | 28 |
| 17 |  CHI | 10 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 19 | 6 |
| 18 |  ATL | 13 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 14 | 26 |
| 19 |  NYJ | 19 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 23 | 3 |
| 20 |  MIA | 20 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 18 | 12 |
| 21 |  SEA | 21 | 0.43 | 0.52 | 20 | 18 |
| 22 |  SF | 22 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 25 | 8 |
| 23 |  TEN | 23 | 0.40 | 0.64 | 24 | 10 |
| 24 |  WAS | 25 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 21 | 22 |
| 25 |  BUF | 24 | 0.31 | 0.43 | 28 | 19 |
| 26 |  CAR | 28 | 0.28 | 0.43 | 29 | 14 |
| 27 |  STL | 29 | 0.23 | 0.55 | 22 | 30 |
| 28 |  DET | 27 | 0.23 | 0.61 | 26 | 21 |
| 29 |  OAK | 26 | 0.22 | 0.56 | 31 | 20 |
| 30 |  KC | 30 | 0.18 | 0.54 | 30 | 29 |
| 31 |  TB | 31 | 0.16 | 0.51 | 27 | 31 |
| 32 |  CLE | 32 | 0.14 | 0.61 | 32 | 25 |
And here are the raw team efficiency stats. Passing, running, and penalties are in yards per relevant play. Fumbles and interception stats are in turnovers per relevant play.
| TEAM | OPASS | ORUN | OINT% | OFUM% | DPASS | DRUN | DINT% | PENRATE |
| ARI | 6.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 0.46 |
| ATL | 6.7 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.42 |
| BAL | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.55 |
| BUF | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 0.46 |
| CAR | 5.3 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.34 |
| CHI | 6.3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.42 |
| CIN | 6.4 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.35 |
| CLE | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.35 |
| DAL | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.51 |
| DEN | 7.0 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 0.36 |
| DET | 5.0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.45 |
| GB | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 0.58 |
| HOU | 7.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.39 |
| IND | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.34 |
| JAC | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.30 |
| KC | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.39 |
| MIA | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.40 |
| MIN | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.32 |
| NE | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 0.39 |
| NO | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 0.38 |
| NYG | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.43 |
| NYJ | 5.5 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.39 |
| OAK | 4.5 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.36 |
| PHI | 6.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 0.47 |
| PIT | 7.6 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.38 |
| SD | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 0.38 |
| SF | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.46 |
| SEA | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.30 |
| STL | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.52 |
| TB | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 0.38 |
| TEN | 5.0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.41 |
| WAS | 5.8 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.41 |
| Avg | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 0.41 |
The Saints are ranked higher on offense, defense, and had a tougher schedule, yet they are ranked behind the Colts. How is that possible?
only thing i can figure on the saints is the awful special teams, especially kick coverage and field goals kicking. does that factor in at all in the rankings?
No it doesn't... this is rather puzzling!
It's because NO has a higher penalty rate.
Penalty rate is not factored in to neither the offensive nor defensive ranks because the NFL does not differentiate between offensive and defensive penalty yards. In fact, it's worse. They call offensive penalties as those that are committed by a team, and defensive penalties as those that are committed by an opponent against that team. It confused me for months and it made it appear as if defensive penalty yards helped teams win.
Also, the O RANKs and D RANKs are computed slightly differently and the overall GWP. There is a little less precision, so it can be possible for there to be tiny discrepancies, particularly when teams are ranked very closely together.
I noticed that Indy is a more efficient pass offense and pass defense than NO, but is not as good against the run. In one of your previous articles I think I remember the pass being more critical to winning.
Brian,
Sorry to keep bothering you with the same question I made in previous comments.
Does the difference in GWP between two teams mean anything?
Yes. GWP is the estimated probability a team would beat a purely league-average team at a neutral site. So a team with a higher GWP would be normally be favored in a match-up, depending on home field.
Brian,
I'm not getting the same OFum% as your eff. stats show.Are you using just scrm. plays, or all that could possisibably yeild a fumble.
Would there be a difference between your posted game probabilities and using Bill James's log5 with a home field advantage?
The log5 is based on points scored/allowed I believe. I would think that means the log5 is subject to more randomness.
Brian,
All of my OFum%'s are positively correlated with yours, but mine are tenths of a percent higher? What gives?
I asked the same question about OFum and got no response, but from looking at his stats I believe he adds the Forced Fumbles Opponent (FFOPP) to a stat called Offense Unforced Fumbles (OUNFFUM). To complicate matters sometimes OUNFFUM is negative. He ends up with a number for fumbles that is less then the published stat, and explains why yours (and mine) are tenths higher.
My guess is the data comes from the NFL databook for each game. So OUNFFUM is a fumble not credited to the defense and one way to get it would be to subtract the number of FF by the defense from the number of fumbles by the offense. If the # of FF is greater then it would be negative. That has no explanation to me other then descrepancies in the gamebook like maybe two people were credited with a forced fumble ... I dunno.
KenyonLV