Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down.This week I also lead-in with my take on some differences between explanatory and predictive models.
Game Probabilities - Week 6
published on 10/15/2009
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Is the Jmed from Georgia guy gonna publish his 20 College picks for the week?
Brain:
i no you are the fan of the team of Allen Edgar Crow. I have come to no that you appear on the radio on Sunae mournings at halph pass the ten. I watch you ervy weak. You talk very nice.
Since you are in now show busyness can you know Pamela for me this sunae.
Yes?
PITTSBURGH -6
OHIO STATE -14
CLEMSON -7
TEXAS -3
BUFFALO -8
BOWLING GREEN -3
OHIO -13
NEVADA -8
LOUISVILLE +13
UCLA +3 1/2
HOUSTON -17
NORHTWESTERN +13 1/2
PENN STATE -16 1/2
USC -10
IOWA +2 1/2
ARMY +10
HAWAII +9
WYOMING +10 1/2
BYU -17
WEST VIRGINA -21
TEXAS TECH +10 1/2
ILLINOIS -2
TEXAS A&M -6
OKLAHOMA ST. -7
UL-LAFAYETTE -7 1/2
FLORIDA INTL +9 1/2
N. ILLINOIS -6
WASHINGTON +6
MISS ST. -4
C. MICHIGAN -7
KANSAS -9 1/2
MIAMI -14 1/2
ARIZONA -4 1/2
SMU +8
UTAH -16 1/2
KENTUCKY -13 1/2
FRESNO ST. -19
COLORADO ST. +22
NEW MEXICO ST +20 1/2
Best of Luck to ya!!!
JMED2 from GA
Win Chance GAME Win Chance
0.38 Houston at Cincinnati 0.62
0.21 Detroit at Green Bay 0.79
0.40 Baltimore at Minnesota 0.60
0.38 Giants at New Orleans 0.62
0.09 Cleveland at Pittsburgh 0.91
0.57 Carolina at Tampa Bay 0.43
0.25 Kansas City at Washington 0.75
0.14 St. Louis at Jacksonville 0.86
0.46 Arizona at Seattle 0.54
0.87 Philadelphia at Oakland 0.13
0.42 Tennessee at New England 0.58
0.23 Buffalo at Jets 0.77
0.39 Chicago at Atlanta 0.61
0.63 Denver at San Diego 0.37
Brian explained how his predictions work in this post.
comparing these probabilities to the straight up odds (not against the spread) the following odds edges have been found (10% or more edge):
hou pays 3.14 to win * 0.38 prob = 1.19 (19% edge)
jax 1.22*0.86=1.05
tb 2.50*0.43=1.075
det 7.75*0.21=1.63
ari 2.34*0.46=1.076
buff 4.86*0.23=1.118
tenn 4.6*0.42=1.93
den 2.57*0.63=1.62
see week 5 probabilities page for explanation
please keep in mind these are for entertainment value only, and are provided only as an demonstration of odds and probabilities. not responsible for gambling winning or losses.
Hey, Brian...love your columns. Question...have you ever written an article/post about the statistical importance of special teams relative to offense/defense? Or would that fall into the "field position" domain?
Jmed from GA
Are you gonna keep posting your college picks or do you post them anywhere else? Any chance you can get these out before Friday before lines start going crazy?
Thanks
I'll try to post by Thursday, I've noticed I've been getting screwed on the Lines waiting for Friday.
Thanks for the input!
JMED2 in GA
Jmed GA
No problem, yea the best time to get bets in is on monday and tuesday while the lines are still being debated by odds makers. They might shift early if sharks throw large amounts early but they usually start moving thursday night, friday morning when the public starts betting. If you noticed some of your games you only won them by 1 point or 1/2 point because the line moved so much. Like Fresno st opened at -18, wash went from +7 to +6, and a few others because the public got on em. Last week though I think you went 25-14 ATS if you took the best possible lines. Which means on games in question buying the extra half-point here and there. Pretty good.
Thanks
OK, HERE ARE THIS WEEKS. THERE
ARE 36 PICKS THIS WEEK AND SHOOTING
FOR 75% RATE ATS. SO 24 SHOULD BE
DEAD ON RIGHT.
TULSA `-7 1/2
GT -5 1/2
C. MICH -7 1/2
S. FLORIDA +6 1/2
MINNESOTA +17 1/2
mISSISSIPPI -6
IOWA STATE +17 1/2
KANSAS ST. -4 1/2
E. MICH +2 1/2
KENT +10 1/2
W. MICHIGAN -5
MTENN ST. -18
C. FLORIDA -10
MIAMI -5
BOSTON COLL +8
ALABAMA -15
PENN ST. -4 1/2
LOUISVILLE +18
NAVY -2 1/2
OREGON -10
IDAHO +15
COLORADO ST. -8
WASH ST. +35
UL-LAFAYETTE -3
ARIZONA -7 1/2
TOLEDO -3
IOWA -1
BYU +2 1/2
HOUSTON -16 1/2
LSU -7 1/2
N. ILLINOIS -11
UNLV PICK 'EM
OREGON ST +21
FRESNO ST. -24
STANFORD -6 1/2
BOISE ST. -25
THERE'S A SWEET 9/10 GAME PROGRESSIVE PARLAY
WIN IN THERE FOR SOMEBODY, MAYBE A FULL 12
PLAY SOMEWHERE,,,,MAYBE IF YOU COUNT BY 3'S.
BEST OF LUCK TO YA!!!
JMED2
Jmed 2
what is your system? I only ask because I have noticed the last couple weeks you post your picks and have said you are 75-80% right but the last 2 weeks you haven't even broke 63%. I was just wondering how you do it or where the high % you say comes from?
TULSA `-7 1/2........L
GT -5 1/2............W
C. MICH -7 1/2.......W
S. FLORIDA +6 1/2....L
MINNESOTA +17 1/2....L
mISSISSIPPI -6.......W
IOWA STATE +17 1/2...W
KANSAS ST. -4 1/2....W
E. MICH +2 1/2.......W
KENT +10 1/2.........W
W. MICHIGAN -5.......L
MTENN ST. -18........W
C. FLORIDA -10.......W
MIAMI -5.............L
BOSTON COLL +8.......W
ALABAMA -15..........L
PENN ST. -4 1/2......W
LOUISVILLE +18.......L
NAVY -2 1/2..........W
OREGON -10...........W
IDAHO +15............L
COLORADO ST. -8......L
WASH ST. +35.........W
UL-LAFAYETTE -3......L
ARIZONA -7 1/2.......W
TOLEDO -3............L
IOWA -1..............W
BYU +2 1/2...........L
HOUSTON -16 1/2......W
LSU -7 1/2...........W
N. ILLINOIS -11......L
UNLV PICK 'EM........W
OREGON ST +21........W
FRESNO ST. -24.......W
STANFORD -6 1/2......W
BOISE ST. -25........W
23-13 63.8% RIGHT
JMED2 from GA