Efficiency Rankings - Week 10

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.


Click on the table headers to sort:

RANK	TEAM	LAST WK	GWP	Opp GWP	O RANK	D RANK
1	NO	2	0.82	0.46	1	13
2	IND	1	0.81	0.42	3	4
3	DEN	3	0.80	0.56	10	1
4	PIT	4	0.78	0.49	4	5
5	NE	7	0.73	0.48	5	16
6	DAL	6	0.72	0.48	2	24
7	SD	5	0.70	0.47	7	14
8	PHI	9	0.67	0.44	15	3
9	CIN	13	0.65	0.56	13	6
10	NYG	11	0.64	0.48	9	9
11	GB	8	0.61	0.38	11	11
12	MIN	10	0.59	0.44	8	22
13	NYJ	14	0.59	0.49	21	2
14	HOU	15	0.57	0.48	6	27
15	BAL	12	0.57	0.55	12	17
16	ATL	16	0.49	0.54	14	23
17	ARI	19	0.47	0.52	17	15
18	CHI	17	0.46	0.46	18	19
19	JAC	20	0.44	0.44	16	31
20	TEN	23	0.44	0.60	19	18
21	SEA	21	0.43	0.46	22	10
22	SF	18	0.41	0.50	24	8
23	MIA	22	0.41	0.63	20	21
24	CAR	24	0.39	0.51	27	7
25	WAS	25	0.37	0.37	25	20
26	BUF	26	0.35	0.48	28	12
27	STL	27	0.23	0.48	23	29
28	TB	31	0.21	0.56	26	30
29	OAK	28	0.20	0.60	31	25
30	KC	30	0.17	0.54	30	32
31	DET	29	0.16	0.54	29	26
32	CLE	32	0.13	0.60	32	28

And here are the sortable raw team efficiency stats. Passing, running, and penalties are in yards per relevant play. Fumbles and interception stats are in turnovers per relevant play.

TEAM	OPASS	ORUN	OINT%	OFUM%	DPASS	DRUN	DINT%	PENRATE
ARI	6.2	3.8	3.7	1.5	6.4	3.9	2.8	0.40
ATL	6.4	4.3	3.9	1.0	6.5	4.5	2.5	0.39
BAL	6.4	4.5	2.5	0.7	6.6	3.5	2.7	0.59
BUF	5.0	4.0	4.0	0.3	5.4	5.1	5.4	0.44
CAR	5.4	4.7	5.9	2.2	5.8	4.4	3.9	0.36
CHI	6.3	4.0	4.2	1.6	5.9	4.2	3.0	0.44
CIN	6.4	4.2	2.7	1.0	6.3	3.8	3.5	0.35
CLE	3.9	3.8	5.6	1.5	7.0	4.9	1.6	0.34
DAL	7.6	5.1	1.9	0.8	6.1	4.2	2.1	0.49
DEN	6.4	4.2	0.4	1.1	5.2	3.4	2.8	0.35
DET	4.8	3.9	5.6	1.0	7.0	4.7	2.1	0.48
GB	6.8	4.5	1.9	0.5	5.9	3.5	5.0	0.51
HOU	7.5	3.3	2.8	1.4	6.3	4.7	2.6	0.43
IND	7.8	3.7	1.9	0.7	4.9	4.3	3.0	0.32
JAC	6.1	5.1	1.9	0.7	6.9	4.3	1.8	0.29
KC	4.6	3.5	2.0	1.5	7.5	4.4	1.2	0.35
MIA	4.8	4.5	2.1	0.5	7.2	3.7	2.8	0.36
MIN	6.7	4.1	1.1	0.7	6.2	4.1	2.2	0.31
NE	7.1	4.1	1.6	0.2	5.4	4.5	2.8	0.39
NO	8.2	4.5	2.6	1.1	5.6	4.4	5.4	0.39
NYG	6.8	4.4	2.7	1.0	5.6	4.5	3.2	0.45
NYJ	5.7	4.8	5.1	1.4	4.8	4.0	2.7	0.38
OAK	4.3	3.6	4.4	0.9	6.8	4.5	2.2	0.35
PHI	6.3	4.7	2.3	0.8	5.3	3.6	5.3	0.48
PIT	7.6	4.0	2.6	1.6	5.4	3.8	1.9	0.38
SD	7.3	3.1	2.2	0.0	5.6	4.2	3.4	0.36
SF	5.2	4.4	2.7	0.6	6.4	3.4	2.1	0.42
SEA	5.6	3.5	1.9	1.2	5.8	4.4	2.8	0.32
STL	5.0	4.6	2.7	1.1	7.1	4.2	2.3	0.48
TB	5.0	4.1	4.5	2.1	7.5	4.8	5.1	0.35
TEN	5.4	5.4	3.8	1.6	6.7	4.4	2.9	0.39
WAS	5.8	4.0	3.2	1.3	5.3	4.2	1.8	0.46
Avg	6.1	4.2	3.0	1.0	6.1	4.2	3.0	0.40