Playoff Probabilities Week 8

Courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com, the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are generated using the NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season 5,000 times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projection. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Well, the simulation machine said it was the High Leverage game last week, and it sure wasn't kidding. After Houston's pasting of Tennessee in Nashville, the Texans increased their overall playoff probability by 29 points, up to 91%, while the Titans plummeted in the tables, dropping 34 points to 24%.

Much of Houston's rise (and Tennessee's fall) is attributable to the way in which the Texans won—they didn't just beat the Titans, they did so with such brutal efficiency as to rise to the top of the team rankings and send Tennessee tumbling down to #18. Overall, the model now gives the Texans a 78% chance to finish with ten or more wins, an outcome almost certain to result in a playoff berth.


But, as discussed last week, there are structural factors at play as well, with the Texans' win giving them a strong edge in the race for the NFC South. One way to assess how much of the model's output is due to structural factors—tiebreakers, strength of competition for playoff berths, etc.—as opposed to how many games we expect a team to win is to look at how often a team makes the playoffs assuming they finish the season with a given number of wins, particularly if they finish with nine wins. (Ten wins, and you will usually make the playoffs; eight wins, you usually won't. Nine wins is right on the edge.)

Since the 2002 realignment, 34% of the teams that finished 9-7 entered the postseason. The Texans, on the other hand, are predicted to earn a playoff spot more than twice that often, making the playoffs in 78% of their 9-7 seasons.

High Leverage Game(s) of the Week

This week two games stand out as being of particularly high importance to the unfolding playoff picture.


Dallas at Philadelphia | Sunday, October 30 | 8:20pm ET

Playoff Prob.	PHI Win	DAL Win
DAL	54	78
PHI	30	9

In his 12 seasons as head coach, Andy Reid has never lost a game following a bye week. This is not the time to break that streak, as this week's division matchup against Dallas provides a very real opportunity for the Eagles to get back into the playoff hunt.

The NFC East is very close and very competitive. As of the latest team rankings, the lowest-ranked team is the #14 Redskins, and only two games separate the team in first from the team in last (that is, the Eagles). In such a situation, division games take on an outsize importance in determining a team's playoff chances. Philadelphia is 2-4, but if they win here and the Redskins lose to Buffalo, the Eagles would actually move into second place in the division.

A Cowboys win on the other hand would move Dallas up to 4-3 with a 2-0 division record, making them the favorites to win the East—they go on to win the division twice as often as any other team. And it would drop Philadelphia to 2-5, leaving the Eagles with just a 3% chance to come back from the basement to win the division and only a 6% shot at a wild card berth.


New England at Pittsburgh | Sunday, October 30 | 4:15 ET

Playoff Prob.	PIT Win	NE Win
NE	81	95
PIT	76	50

At 5-1, New England is on the top of the heap in the AFC. Though the Patriots are well-situated to win their division and earn a playoff berth, Buffalo can hardly be counted out yet. And of course the Patriots have their seeding to think about—a win here would increase their chances of being the top seed (and enjoying home-field advantage throughout the playoffs) to over 50%.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh has the second-best record in the AFC, but the next two weeks could make or break their shot at winning the North, with this week's game against the Patriots followed by a pivotal division matchup at home against the #7-ranked Ravens. Having already lost their season opener in Baltimore, the Steelers can't afford another loss to their main rival for the division title. If they lose both games, their odds of taking the division drop to 4%.

News & Notes

• The Packers continue to dominate, and, as the league's sole remaining undefeated team, it would take a rather epic collapse to shut Green Bay out of the postseason. For the record, they finish the season with 16 wins in 2% of simulated seasons (and chances are about one in two hundred that they finish a perfect 19-0).

• For those of you who keep track of such things, the Colts now have a 40% chance of claiming the number one pick in next year's draft. Of course, then they would have to figure out who to pick. Decisions, decisions...

As always, the probabilities below may not add up to 100 (in percent form) due to rounding. Enjoy.

AFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NE	66	26	8	0
BUF	23	42	34	2
NYJ	11	32	55	2
MIA	0	0	4	96
AFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
BAL	47	32	18	4
PIT	33	38	24	5
CIN	18	27	45	11
CLE	1	4	14	80
AFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
HOU	88	10	2	0
TEN	9	63	26	3
JAC	3	25	60	12
IND	0	2	12	86
AFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
SD	58	27	12	3
OAK	30	38	24	8
KC	9	24	38	29
DEN	3	11	27	60
NFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
DAL	48	27	16	9
NYG	30	31	24	15
WAS	13	24	31	32
PHI	9	18	29	44
NFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
GB	90	9	1	0
DET	9	63	28	1
CHI	1	28	68	3
MIN	0	0	3	96
NFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NO	90	8	1	0
ATL	6	43	32	19
TB	2	28	34	36
CAR	1	21	32	45
NFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
SF	91	7	1	0
ARI	5	39	33	22
SEA	2	34	36	27
STL	1	20	29	50

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
NE	33	18	11	4	13	8	87
HOU	19	23	25	22	1	2	91
BAL	16	16	10	6	14	12	73
PIT	10	10	9	5	19	14	66
BUF	7	7	5	3	16	14	53
SD	6	10	15	28	2	4	64
CIN	5	6	5	3	11	12	42
NYJ	2	3	4	2	9	12	33
OAK	2	5	10	14	4	7	41
TEN	1	2	3	3	6	9	24
KC	0	1	2	6	2	3	13
CLE	0	0	0	1	1	1	3
DEN	0	0	1	2	1	1	5
JAC	0	0	1	2	0	1	5
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
IND	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
GB	73	13	3	1	8	1	99
NO	10	35	27	18	2	2	94
SF	8	23	26	34	1	1	93
DET	4	3	2	1	42	18	68
DAL	3	14	18	14	6	12	65
NYG	2	7	11	10	8	12	50
WAS	0	3	6	5	5	10	29
CHI	0	1	0	0	17	19	38
ATL	0	1	3	2	6	9	21
PHI	0	1	3	6	3	7	20
TB	0	0	1	1	1	3	6
ARI	0	0	1	4	0	1	7
SEA	0	0	0	2	1	1	4
CAR	0	0	0	1	1	2	4
STL	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0