Taking Points Off The Board

Reader 'slushhead' asks:

What do you think about "taking points off the board?" Specifically, should Washington have declined the penalty on the third quarter field goal?

Leading 10-0, WAS kicked a successful FG with 10:29 to go in the 3rd quarter. An offside penalty on DAL gave WAS the choice between keeping the 3 points or accepting the penalty, which would give them a 1st and 10 on the DAL 12.

Lovie's Blunder

I'm hoping not to turn this site into 4thDownAnalysis.com, but I did get several requests to look at another controversial 4th down decision. (And I'll always be happy to take requests.) Down 14-13 to DET, CHI faced a 4th and goal from the 1 with about 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter. A FG is nearly automatic, giveing CHI a 2-point lead and a 0.59 WP.

Conversion attempts from the 1 are successful about 68% of the time. A successful TD gives CHI a 6-point lead and a 0.79 WP. A failed attempt leaves DET at its own 1, but with a 1-point lead, worth 0.44 WP for CHI. On net, the conversion attempt is worth 0.68*0.79 + (1-0.68)*0.44 = 0.68 WP. Going for it was the right call by a large margin--0.68 to 0.59.

CHI went for it, but Matt Forte was stopped for no gain. But that's only half the story.

Should MIN Have Gone For It?

I received a few requests to analyze MIN’s final drive from last night. With a little over 5 min left, down by 5 points, they faced a 4th and 11 from the NO 44. MIN punted, and NO was able to convert 3 first downs and seal the game. Should MIN have gone for it?

Welcome Back

The 2010 season starts tonight, and Advanced NFL Stats returns in mid-season form. I'm going into a contract year, and I'm in the best shape of my career. I had a great off-season working out at the team facilities. I've finally put my messy personal problems and last year's four-game suspension behind me, and my coaching staff is expecting big things. So draft Advanced NFL Stats first and put it #1 in your RSS reader.

The Win Probability graphs will be going strong again with a few enhancements. The model has been tweaked, with more refined estimates when the ball is near the goal line. I’ve added a live update of the Expected Points of the current drive. It’s a little abstract, but it gives a feel for the impact of events in the game. (That sack on 3rd and 4 just cost us 3 net points!). I also plan to add the current probability of a TD and probability of a FG at some point.

Also, during the last couple weeks of the playoffs last season, I added a live chat/comment capability under each game’s graph. We had a lot of fun with it, and I’m bringing it back this season. The chat from last year’s Super Bowl was great with all its twists and turns. I don’t expect every game to get flooded with instant commentary and analysis, but for the bigger national games I know readers will add their two cents.

The Linebackers' Dilemma

Say there are two inside linebackers on the same team, John Andrew and Dan Farley. They’re considered equally good players, and both are in a contract year. Their team is good, and one of the early favorites to go deep in the playoffs this season. Each one has some choices to make over the course of the upcoming season.

Both Andrew and Farley want a big payday. In order to get as big a contract as possible, they need a lot of gaudy numbers to point to—lots of sacks, QB hits, forced fumbles. Millions of dollars are on the table, and the temptation is strong. However, leading their defense to a successful year and going deep in the playoffs will increase their values too. But that can only happen if both Andrew and Farley play selflessly and put their team first.

On any given play, a LB can either guess at the play call, trying to get a sack or stuff a run. Or, he can play his responsibility within his scheme by reading and reacting, doing exactly what the coordinator expects him to do. In other words, he can do what his team is counting on him to do, or he can gamble trying to make a play himself, exposing his team to giving up big gains.

Washington Post: McNabb's Potential Impact in DC

Today I'm beginning a weekly contribution at the Washington Post's Redskins Insider site. Well, it will be weekly as long as the commenters don't have their way. (There's a little "Report Abuse" link next to each comment, and I think I might have to report almost every one. Maybe readers were expecting another riveting Albert-Haynesworth-is-lazy post.) My contributions will be primarily Redskins-specific, but will draw upon the general concepts in the Advanced NFL Stats toolbox.

The inaugural post is a back-of-the-envelope calculation about how many wins McNabb can bring with his expected passing efficiency and turnover rates. Of course, there's more to a passing game than just a QB, but this gives Redskins fans an idea of the range of potential improvement.

My thanks to Lindsay and Mitch at the Post for the opportunity. Looking forward to a fun season.

The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week One

Five notes before we begin:

1. Thank you times a thousand to Brian Burke. His site is crazy good. It's my ambition not to destroy it.

2. Below are previews of two upcoming games: Thursday night's between Minnesota and New Orleans and the Monday game between San Diego and Kansas City. These previews aren't intended to be exhaustive, by any means. (In fact, the attentive reader will notice that there are only, like, 10 words dedicated to the Chiefs.) Rather, the intent is to construct a lens through which to watch these games -- hopefully something that your local paper isn't gonna provide. I discuss this more fully in the introduction thing near the end.

3. Oh yeah, there's an introduction thing ("Introduction-as-Epilogue") near the end of this document. It explores more fully the theoretical underpinnings to this document. If it makes you throw up, I apologize.

Site News: Welcome Carson Cistulli

On other sites and message boards I often see Advanced NFL Stats referred to as “the Fangraphs of football.” That’s a pretty high compliment, and although I wouldn’t go nearly that far, I’ll certainly take it. There are a lot of similarities, and they were mostly accidental, at least at first. Both sites feature sound statistical analysis, and both feature live win probability graphs for their respective sports. After my own WP graph feature gained a following, I looked at Fangraphs for inspiration for how to further build a respectable sports analysis site. Gradually, Advanced NFL Stats became Fangraphs’ creepy stalker Jennifer Jason Leigh character from the movie Single White Female, and now the transformation is complete.

Carson Cistulli, a regular contributor at Fangraphs, has agreed to come on board to provide us with his brand of analysis, a slightly more entertaining look at football stats than what I can normally provide. He’s planning to start off doing some game previews, but may do some other things down the road.

Aside from his regular gig at Fangraphs, Carson is a writing instructor (maybe he can help me), a contributor at RotoWire, and a real-life poet. Yes poet. (Warning. Click at your own risk.)

So please welcome Carson, and you can look forward to his first post shortly.