Last Saturday, we took our first (entirely modest) step towards providing fantasy advice that's also in line with the defining principles of the work here at Advanced NFL Stats.
Some early comments on that Saturday piece led to research in the area of pass/run distribution by Win Probability (WP), with the discovery that a team's play-calling is pretty seriously informed by their in-game WP -- potentially valuable information for the fantasy owner.
Further work in this area last Tuesday by Chase Stuart of the NY Times' Fifth Down blog gives us a portait of every team's "platonic" run/pass mix -- that is, run/pass mix stripped of game state.
In what follows, I've attempted to use these concepts towards the end of a More Informed Fantasy Analysis. Below, I've listed (at least) one player at each of the main fantasy positions who's (a) owned in fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues and (b) likely to have some fantasy value this weekend. As per usual, don't hesitate either to ask questions or simply harass me in the comments
Quarterback
Matt Hasselbeck is actually available in 55% of leagues (i.e. slightly above the 50% threshold), but the next-best alternative, John Beck (8%), appears to have only a tenuous grasp on the starting job in Washington. Hasselbeck has actually been pretty efficient, having posted a 104 NY/A+ this season. With the collapse of the Titan running game (Tennessee has a league-low 30.9% run success rate), the team has skewed pass heavy -- and will likely be passing late against a favored (0.62 PROB) Carolina team.
Fantasy Adds for Week Ten
Five Fantasy Adds for Week Nine
This week's edition of The Weekly League isn't The Weekly League, at all, but rather an experiment in nerd-centric fantasy analysis.
Fantasy Notes for Week Nine
Introduction
There are a lot of sites with a lot of fantasy football experts on them -- and, likely, many of those experts are good at what they do. What follows merely represents an attempt to apply some of the concepts central to Advanced NFL Stats -- especially, for example, our emphasis on separating repeatable skills from those acts which are more the product of variance -- to the world of fantasy football.
Below I've listed one player at each of the main fantasy positions who's (a) owned in fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues and (b) likely to have some fantasy value this weekend. Don't hesitate either to ask questions or simply harass me in the comments.
Quarterback
Indy's Curtis Painter (11% owned) and Kansas City's Matt Cassel (44%) both play at home against teams (Atlanta and Miami, respectively) with poor defensive ratings per GWP -- and the pair have identical net yards per pass averages, too (at 6.0). If Painter has an edge it's that there's a non-zero possibility that he could add production via the rush. Last week he ran for 79 yards on seven attempts. That's merely one data point, yes, but rushing yards are more valuable in most fantasy formats, which makes it a data point of interest.
Week Eight Game Preview: Detroit at Tim Tebow
The Weekly League diverts from its normal format to look at the Detroit Lions-Denver Broncos contest in depth.
Detroit at Denver | Sunday, October 30 | 4:05pm ET
Four Factors
The Obviously Interesting Thing About This Game
The obviously interesting thing about this game is how Tim Tebow will be making his second start for the Broncos in as many weeks -- after playing a large part in Denver's come-from-behind, overtime victory last week against Miami.
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Seven
It's a metaphor.
This week's edition of The Weekly League features
1. Largely superficial previews of the Chicago-Tampa Bay, Green Bay-Minnesota, and Indianapolis-New Orleans pro football games.
2. A table of pythagorean records using Expected Points Added, by which measure the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are exposed!!!1!
and
3. Armchair Psychology, Armchair Statistics, and Armchair Other Sciences.
Chicago at Tampa Bay | Sunday, October 23 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• This seems like an appropriate time to do a Jay Cutler Sack Attack update.
• Doing so, we find that Cutler has been sacked 19 times in six games this season -- but that only five of those sacks have come over the last three games.
• Question: Is that an (a) trend or (b) product of arbitrary endpoints?
• Answer: We don't know.
• Or, rather: I, personally, don't know. There's maybe someone who does.
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Six
Indy's Curtis Painter: probably a better quarterback than babysitter.
This week's edition of The Weekly League features
1. Handcrafted previews of the Indianapolis-Cincinnati, Carolina-Atlanta, and Dallas-New England football games.
2. A table of pythagorean records using Expected Points Added, by which measure Minnesota and Carolina show some promise.
and
3. Lies and other lies.
Indianapolis at Cincinnati | Sunday, October 16 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• If you're curious about which quarterback recorded the highest Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYPA) last week -- or even if you're really not curious, turns out -- either way, the answer is "Curtis Painter," at 10.3.
• "Curtis Painter" is also the answer to the questions "Which quarterback is third overall (in a limited sample) in terms of Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A, which includes sack yardage but not interceptions)?" and "Which quarterback has been considerably more efficient than Kerry Collins this season, despite playing in the same offense?"
• In terms of questions to which "Curtis Painter" is not the answer, one of them is "Who's the author of the book Cop Kisser?"
• Because the author of that book is Steve Zultanksi, is why.
• Steve Zultanksi, who writes a poem (in that book, Cop Kisser) called "A Poem for Dick Butkus," a stanza from which is "I'm Dick Butkus. / I'm a little / butt."
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Five
Titan quarterback Matt Hasselbeck invites you to talk to the hand
This week's edition of The Weekly League features
1. Bright and shining previews for this week's Tennessee-Pittsburgh, Green Bay-Atlanta, and Chicago-Detroit football games.
2. A table including each team's pythagorean record using Expected Points Added.
and
3. Reason.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh | Sunday, October 09 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• The Titans currently have the third-ranked offense per GWP and yet it likely has absolutely nothing to do with running back Chris Johnson.
• To wit: Tennessee currently ranks last in run EPA (-18.1), run EPA/P (-0.19), and second to last in run success rate (31.2%).
• Matt Hasselbeck, meanwhile, is averaging 7.3 adjusted yards per pass -- third only to Aaron Rodgers (8.0) and Tom Brady (7.9).
• Unfortunately for the Titans, much of the passing success has been due to the presence of Kenny Britt (16.5 EPA, 0.63 EPA/P, 11.1 YPT), now on the IR.
• Still, Hasselbeck managed an 8.8 YPA last week, targeting four difference receivers at least four times.
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Four
Dallas Cowboy linebacker Sean Lee: good at tackling.
This week's edition of The Weekly League features
1. Award-winning previews for this week's Detroit-Dallas, New York Jet-Baltimore, and Indianapolis-Tampa Bay games.
2. A table that compares each team's actual points versus their Expected Points Added.
and
3. GWPs, PROBs, and other crowd-pleasing acronyms.
Detroit at Dallas | Sunday, October 02 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• As the table towards the bottom of this post indicates, the Cowboy defense has been better so far than the team's 69 points allowed would suggest.
• Consider, for example, how Dallas has allowed the sixth-fewest net yards per pass attempt (5.8) in the league, the fifth-fewest yeards per play (4.8), the sixth-lowest EPA per passing play (-0.01), and the sixth-lowest overall EPA per play (-0.05).
• If you have time, also consider how the defense is ranked seventh overall per defensive GWP.
• Now, consider how the team has allowed those 69 points, the 17th fewest (or 16th most -- however you like it) in the league.
• It's something that, much like a C+C Music Factory song, makes a person go "Hmmm."
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Three
Scott Chandler: The Most Important Football Player.
This week's edition of The Weekly League features
1. Mega Previews for the New England-Buffalo, Detroit-Minnesota, and Green Bay-Chicago football games.
2. An Interesting Fact™ regarding the Jay Cutler Sack Problem™.
and
3. Unflinching -- and mostly unwarranted -- devotion to Bills tight end Scott Chandler.
New England at Buffalo | Sunday, September 25 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• In the event that you're curious about which receiver leads the 2-0 Bills in Expected Points Added (EPA), please be curious no longer -- because the answer is "tight end Scott Chandler."
• A couple other categories in which Scott Chandler leads the Buffalo receiving corps are EPA/P (1.12) and yards per target (8.8) -- i.e. pretty important things.
• All of which is to say: get Scott Chandler the ball, Buffalo Bills.
• A second note to the Buffalo Bills: try not to get Patriot quarterback Tom Brady the ball.
• Because he's the best at throwing it to his teammates, is why.
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Two
Merely one of the jerseys Buffalo's Scott Chandler barely ever wore.
This week's edition of The Weekly League features
1. Previews for the Oakland-Buffalo, Green Bay-Carolina, and San Diego-New England games.
2. Some surprising facts about the Buffalo Bills and their Week One accomplishment.
and
3. Considerably more sass than frass.
Note: the author has replaced yards per run with success rate as the standard by which ORUN+ and DRUN+ are evaluated, on account of run success rate correlates with winning more strongly.
Oakland at Buffalo | Sunday, September 18 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• Last week, the Buffalo Bills were the only team in the league to post above-average numbers in every one of the four factors (pass efficiency, pass efficiency allowed, run success rate, and defensive run success rate) en route to beating Kansas City, 41-7.
• Of course, one will note, a single game is a small sample.
• One will also note, however, that Kansas City was a better team than Buffalo last season and playing at home -- an advantage that would give one completely average team about a 57% chance of victory over another completely average team.
• Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's relationship with tight end Scott Chandler proved particularly fruitful, as Chandler caught all five passes thrown to him, for an average of 12.6 yards per target (YPT) and 1.71 expected points added per play (EPA/P).
• This is the same Scott Chandler who had one reception in 14 career games entering the season.
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week One
 |
| Jay Cutler has fallen and doesn't want to get up. |
This week's edition of The Weekly League features
1. Heat-seeking previews for the Atlanta-Chicago, Minnesota-San Diego, and New England-Miami football games.
2. A total and purposeful omission of the Sunday night game between Dallas and the Jets.
and
3. A photo of Jay Cutler looking groggy -- i.e. basically the only type of photo of Jay Cutler on the internet.
Atlanta at Chicago | Sunday, September 11 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• Against his better judgment, the author remains the sort of person who's pretty sure the Cutler-Martz Experiment will succeed.
• In fact, it sorta did succeed last year -- in that Cutler finished seventh among 31 qualified quarterbacks in yards per attempt, at 7.6 (compared to a league average of 7.0).
• Unfortunately, when considering net yards per attempt -- which also accounts for sacks -- Cutler finished 21st overall, at 6.0 (relative to the league average of 6.2).
• The Bears, of course, finished with a league-worst 10.7% sack rate.
• That Cutler's career sack rate is just 5.9% (i.e. about league average) and the Bears drafted lineman Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin bodes well for the team's passing attack (i.e. the thing that wins games).
Ten Super Bowl Predictions
Aaron Rodgers' Milwaukee-area home.
As our host in these pages, Brian Burke, has established, there are two things humans love more than anything: lists and predictions (and the Twilight movies, too, turns out, but let's limit our scope to the first two items for right now). Burke's weekly game probabilities -- themselves lists of predictions -- are wildly popular for this reason.
Always one to ride the coattails of his more talented and well-liked colleagues, I've submitted here a list of ten predictions for tomorrow's (Sunday's) Super Bowl.
Here they are, sans delay.
1. Aaron Rodgers will complete a thousand-yard pass -- to one of heaven's angels.
A New Criticism of the Pittsburgh Steelers
It's with no little anxiety that I make my weekly contribution to the site today. No, not because I'm concerned that my glee at the Falcons' playoff dismissal will be revealed. (It already has been, probably.) And, no, not because I'm worried about accidentally descending into a fawning -- and, maybe, sometimes indecent -- eulogy of Packer quarterback Aaron Rodgers. (I probably already have somehow.)
Rather, it's this: owing to some mid-week site changes, each post here at Advanced NFL Stats (ANS) now has, appended to it, the name of said post's author.
The sympathetic reader will understand immediately how such a thing might threaten the serenity of Carson Cistulli's inner soul: for 19 or so weeks, I've been able to submit my weekly dispatches more or less under the cloak of anonymity*. Or better than anonymity, really: for it's wholly possible that, having no explicit knowledge regarding the authorship of my posts, that readers have mistakenly assumed that they (i.e. the posts) have been written not by the very ridiculous and mostly uninformed Carson Cistulli, but, instead, by the very competent and all-knowing Brian Burke.
*A totally expensive type of cloak designed by British fashion house Burberry.
In other words, it's likely that I've benefited from this authorly ambiguity (even, perhaps, as Brian's reputation has has been tarnished considerably).
Green Bay Is John Smoltz (2009 Edition)
This week's edition of The Weekly League isn't an edition of The Weekly League at all.
Surprise!
John Smoltz Pitches Poorly (Or Doesn't)
Before the 2009 baseball season started, the Boston Red Sox signed right-hander John Smoltz to a one-year contract. The signing was notable for a number of reasons, including but not limited to the following:
• Until that point, he'd pitched with the same team (the Atlanta Braves) for his entire 21-year career.
• He was (is) a future Hall of Famer.
• He was coming off major surgery to a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder.
• He would likely not be available to pitch until June.
• He was old (41).
The move was generally considered a good one for the Sox, who paid Smoltz a base salary of about $5.5 million, with incentives that could net the pitcher something in the vicinity of $10 million. And the deal looked even smarter after Smoltz made his first minor-league start in May, pitched well through his entire rehab stint, and made his Red Sox debut on June 25th at Washington.
Yet, besides the fact that he was able to make it at all, that start against the Nationals didn't go so great. Smoltz allowed seven hits and five earned runs in five innings, taking the loss. And, actually, that performance was typical of his eight-start tenure with the Sox. Before being released by the team on August 17th, Smoltz' line with the Sox looked like this: 40.0 IP, 59 H, 37 ER, 8.33 ERA. By the majority of fans and local media, the Smoltz Experiment was considered a failure.
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Wild Card Play
This week's edition of The Weekly League features more links than all my gold chains combined.
New Orleans at Seattle | Saturday, January 08 | 4:30pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• Neither of these teams, you'll notice, "should" have a winning percentage above .500.
• The Seahawks, in fact, "should" have the fourth-worst record in the entire NFL.
• Question: Does this -- that is, the fact that Seattle's in the playoffs and even playing at home -- does this delegitimize the current NFL playoff structure?
• Answer: No.
• Reason: Sport is defined by constraints (i.e. rules) agreed upon by the majority of participants. Occasionally, those constraints produce peculiar outcomes, but they're never objectively bad outcomes.
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Fifteen
This week's edition of The Weekly League features:
1. Mind-altering previews of the Kansas City-Saint Louis, Green Bay-New England, and Chicago-Minnesota games.
2. An updated "luck" table, exposing the Atlanta Falcons for the frauds they really are.
and
3. No shortage of The Good Times™.
The Four Factors you see for each game represent each team's raw performance thus far in four important categories (pass and rush efficiency, pass and rush efficiency against) relative to league average (where 100 is league average and anything above is good).
Along with the Four Factors, you'll see two other numbers: Generic Win Probability (GWP) and Game Probability (PROB). The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. It can be found for all teams here. The PROB is each respective team's chance of winning this particular contest. Your host, Brian Burke, provides PROBs to the New York Times each week, and those numbers (along with methodology) can be found here.
Finally, a glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.
Kansas City at Saint Louis | Sunday, December 19 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• Unless I'm mistaken, the prevailing view on Rams quarterback Sam Bradford is that he's having a good season.
• Probably because St. Louis is at the top of their division, is why, right?
• But let's also make sure to note that Bradford is second to last -- ahead of only Jimmy Frigging Claussen -- in yards per attempts among qualified QBs, with 5.4.
• That's (slightly) behind Derek Anderson, it should be noted.
• In somewhat related news, both Bradford and Anderson are way better at being quarterbacks than I am at being anything in the world.
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Fourteen
Along with the Four Factors, you'll see two other numbers: Generic Win Probability (GWP) and Game Probability (PROB). The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. It can be found for all teams here. The PROB is each respective team's chance of winning this particular contest. Your host, Brian Burke, provides PROBs to the New York Times each week, and those numbers (along with methodology) can be found here.
Finally, a glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.
New York Giants at Minnesota | Sunday, December 12 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• True Fact: Americans are holding their collective breaths, waiting to find out whether Brett Favre or Tarvaris Jackson will start this afternoon's game.
• Other True Fact: Americans should probably stop holding their breaths, lest they suffer some sort of oxygen deprivation-related brain damage.
• As for which is the better option -- Favre or Jackson -- our host Brian Burke suggests the latter might have an edge on the former, although it's not entirely clear.
• A notable thing is that, despite what must be considered a disappointing season on the face of it, the Vikings are actually ranked tenth per GWP, with a 0.59 mark.
• They're also the NFL's fifth-unluckiest team (as you can see below in the GWP Luck table).
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Thirteen
This week's edition of The Weekly League features:
1. Rapture-inducing previews of the Cleveland-Miami, Dallas-Indianapolis, Pittsburgh-Baltimore, and New York Jet-New England games.
2. A quiz!
and
3. Another quiz, right after the first one!
The Four Factors you see for each game represent each team's raw performance thus far in four important categories (pass and rush efficiency, pass and rush efficiency against) relative to league average (where 100 is league average and anything above is good).
Along with the Four Factors, you'll see two other numbers: Generic Win Probability (GWP) and Game Probability (PROB). The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. It can be found for all teams here. The PROB is each respective team's chance of winning this particular contest. Your host, Brian Burke, provides PROBs to the New York Times each week, and those numbers (along with methodology) can be found here.
Finally, a glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.
Cleveland at Miami | Sunday, December 05 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• This game features two of the league's most interesting cases: Peyton Hillis and Cameron Wake.
• Wake, who began his professional career in Canada, is either second or tied for first in sacks, depending on whose numbers you use.
• He's also first in QB Hits, with 21.
• As for Hillis, he's third among all running backs in WPA (0.96) and and seventh in EPA/P (0.09).
• This, from a player who was traded for Brady Quinn this past offseason.
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Twelve
This week's edition of The Weekly League features:
1. Previews of the Green Bay-Atlanta, Philadelphia-Chicago, San Diego-Indianapolis, and San Francisco-Arizona games.
2. A photo of a player relevant to the article -- always a good technique to attract the attention of readers.
and
3. Over 100 points of joie de vivre.
The Four Factors represent each team's raw performance in four important categories (pass and rush efficiency, pass and rush efficiency against) relative to league average (where 100 is league average and anything above is good).
Generic Win Probability (GWP) is the probability a team would beat the league-average team at a neutral site. It can be found for all teams here. Game Probability (PROB) is each respective team's chance of winning this particular contest. Those numbers (along with methodology) can be found here.
Finally, a glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.
Green Bay at Atlanta | Sunday, November 28 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• Pop quiz, America.
• What's more surprising:
• That (a) Green Bay is third in the NFL, with a 0.74 GWP, despite a rushing attack fronted by Brandon Jackson, or
• That (b) Atlanta is a very pedestrian 19th overall, with a 0.47 GWP, despite a glistening 8-2 record?
• In any case, as the Increasingly Renowned Brian Burke noted mid-week, the latter shouldn't be very surprising at all.
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Eleven
This week's edition of The Weekly League features:
1. Previews of the Green Bay-Minnesota, Oakland-Pittsburgh, Indianapolis-New England, and Denver-San Diego games.
2. Responses to three readers on matters sundry.
and
3. Tons of whimsy.
The Four Factors represent each team's raw performance in four important categories (pass and rush efficiency, pass and rush efficiency against) relative to league average (where 100 is league average and anything above is good).
Generic Win Probability (GWP) is the probability a team would beat the league-average team at a neutral site. It can be found for all teams here. Game Probability (PROB) is each respective team's chance of winning this particular contest. Those numbers (along with methodology) can be found here.
Finally, a glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.
Notes to Three Readers
To the Reader Who Asked for Fewer NFC East Games
Your wish is my command. Or, at least, this wish is my command. Other wishes, probably not so much.
To the Reader Who Asked Why the Unlucky Teams on the GWP Table Are Green
I'm drawn towards -- and, I'm guessing, many readers here are drawn towards -- teams that are better than public perception might suggest. The green -- as opposed to the red -- reflects bad luck as a "virtue."
To the Reader Who Asked About My Impressive Jawline, Whether It's Natural
Yes. It is. Cento per cento.
Green Bay at Minnesota | Sunday, November 21 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• This is what you might call "a clash of NFC North foes."
• So that's one thing.
• But another thing is: have you ever frigging seen Clay Matthews play?
• He's 24th among linebackers in +WPA and sixth in EPA/G.
• But he's more like first or second overall in the category of "being scary."
The Weekly League: Notes for Week Ten
This week's edition of The Weekly League features:
1. Previews of the Minnesota-Chicago, New England-Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia-Washington games.
2. The GWP win/luck table that makes all the ladies scream.
and
3. Hella chagrin.
The Four Factors you see for each game represent each team's raw performance thus far in four important categories (pass and rush efficiency, pass and rush efficiency against) relative to league average (where 100 is league average and anything above is good).
Along with the Four Factors, you'll see two other numbers: Generic Win Probability (GWP) and Game Probability (PROB). The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. It can be found for all teams here. The PROB is each respective team's chance of winning this particular contest. Your host, Brian Burke, provides PROBs to the New York Times each week, and those numbers (along with methodology) can be found here.
The following games have been chosen as they'll be available to the greatest portion of the network-watching audience, per the NFL maps at the506.com.
Finally, a glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.
Minnesota at Chicago | Sunday, November 14 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors
Notes
• As noted by our host Brian Burke, Jared Allen -- despite having what appears to be an underwhelming year by his standards -- is still second among defensive ends with a 0.96 +WPA this season.
• Allen is, among other things, second in QB hits, with 15.
• That thing about Allen is bad, on account of -- through Week Eight, at least -- Chicago was sporting the worst offensive line (as measure by WPA) in the league.
• Probably a whole bunch of that is from the game where the New York Giants sacked Jay Cutler something like 43 times in the first half.
• Yep. Just checked it out. It was 43 times exactly.