The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Twelve

This week's edition of The Weekly League features:

1. Previews of the Green Bay-Atlanta, Philadelphia-Chicago, San Diego-Indianapolis, and San Francisco-Arizona games.

2. A photo of a player relevant to the article -- always a good technique to attract the attention of readers.


3. Over 100 points of joie de vivre.

The Four Factors represent each team's raw performance in four important categories (pass and rush efficiency, pass and rush efficiency against) relative to league average (where 100 is league average and anything above is good).

Generic Win Probability (GWP) is the probability a team would beat the league-average team at a neutral site. It can be found for all teams here. Game Probability (PROB) is each respective team's chance of winning this particular contest. Those numbers (along with methodology) can be found here.

Finally, a glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.

Green Bay at Atlanta | Sunday, November 28 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors

• Pop quiz, America.
• What's more surprising:
• That (a) Green Bay is third in the NFL, with a 0.74 GWP, despite a rushing attack fronted by Brandon Jackson, or
• That (b) Atlanta is a very pedestrian 19th overall, with a 0.47 GWP, despite a glistening 8-2 record?
• In any case, as the Increasingly Renowned Brian Burke noted mid-week, the latter shouldn't be very surprising at all.

Philadelphia at Chicago | Sunday, November 28 | 4:15pm ET
Four Factors

• Fact: Philadelphia is averaging a full yard more per rushing play (5.4) than Carolina is per passing play (4.4).
• They (i.e. the Eagles) are also a full 2.7 standard deviations above the mean in yards per carry.
• Next best is Houston, at 1.7 standard deviations above the mean.
• On a related note, here's the team allowing the second-fewest yards per carry: Chicago.
• Fight! Fight! Fight!

San Diego at Indianapolis | Sunday, November 28 | 8:20pm ET
Four Factors

• OMG, Vincent Jackson returns this week.
• Here are two things he (i.e. Jackson) did last year: ranked first in WPA/G (0.20) and first in WPA (2.93).
• Here are two others: finished tied for second in EPA/P (0.71) and second in WPA (82.6).
• Bold prediction: Jackson will be good for what's left of the season.
• Huh. That's actually not real bold, is it?

San Francisco at Arizona | Monday, November 29 | 8:30pm ET
Four Factors

• In three games, Troy Smith has averaged 7.2 net yards per pass attempt -- or, about a yard better than league average (6.3).
• In seven games, Alex Smith averaged just 5.8 net yards per pass attempt.
• Perhaps that's not entirely fair, as the three defenses Troy Smith has faced (Denver, St. Louis, Tampa) are ranked 32nd, 28th, and 20th overall by GWP (average of about 27th overall).
• The seven defenses A. Smith faced? They're ranked 16th, on average.
• So, that could be a thing.

GWP Wins and Luck
Here's the table, through Week Ten and sans comment, of GWP wins and losses as compared to actual wins and losses.

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2 Responses to “The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Twelve”

  1. Jim Glass says:

    Atlanta is a very pedestrian 19th overall, with a 0.47 GWP, despite a glistening 8-2 record.
    Atlanta is a very pedestrian 19th overall, with a 0.47 GWP, despite a glistening 8-2 record.

    If Altanta wins this Sunday they may earn the distinction of having fielded the two weakest 9-2 team in history. Check out the 2004 version. I can't find team efficiency ratings for 2004 but by EPA they look quite comparable, and I haven't been able to find any 9-2 squad that looked weaker.

  2. Ian Simcox says:

    Jim - the 2004 Falcons also played against the NFC West. Apparently if you're going to be average one year, do it when you're against the NFC West.

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