Saints Slip Up, Still Win

Sean Payton is back in the decision-maker chair for the Saints after his one-year sabbatical, and he is typically known as one of the more analytical coaches. The Saints pass more often than other teams, they go for it on fourth down more often, and even try the occasional surprise onside kick.

On Sunday, Payton faced a couple of fourth down decisions, testing his analytical mind. On their second drive, the Saints ran the ball on 4th-and-1 from their own 47-yard line -- a sizable gamble to the traditional football mind. Mark Ingram was stuffed and the Falcons would turn good starting field position into a field goal. This was definitely the right decision, despite the outcome (+0.84 EP going for it vs -0.30 EP with a punt).

The much bigger decision, though, came with 3:30 left in the game up three. The Saints faced a 4th-and-2 from the 4-yard line after a 5-yard completion to Lance Moore. Drew Brees lined up to attempt a 4th-down conversion but Payton ultimately decided to take a timeout to think things over. After the timeout, the Saints came out in field goal formation, made the chip shot and went up 23-17.

So, what do the numbers say?

Sport

Stochastic Football

It is possible that you do not think Quentin Tarantino is a genius. It too is possible that you have little interest in that small group of people that are Judd Apatow's friends. When a celebrity embarrasses his or herself, it is possible you do not want to scold that person, joke about that person or even joke about others joking about that person. It is possible even that you didn't know it happened when it happened, and upon knowing, wonder why you should give a damn.

Maybe you have no opinion about zombies, don't know the song of the summer and care little about who is cast as Batman. Maybe to you, kindly reader, pop culture is a lamprey that attaches itself whenever you step into a supermarket or gas station or bodega. Maybe you'd rather hate than capitulate to a culture that is tenaciously mediocre; maybe to you ironic detachment seems a cure worse than the disease.

No one thinks pop musicians are the most talented or creative people making or performing music, few think actors are even actors but professional personas cultivating a brand, and that farrago of acting, music, costuming, … … … writing we call mainstream cinema, is impervious to ideas that cannot be projected to gross in the millions. James Cameron didn't plumb the depths of his soul to make Avatar—his grand achievement was developing a visual effect that could not be reproduced at home. 

This emphasis on novelty, accessibility and mass appeal is sometimes, patronizingly, called populism, and sometimes, cynically, called seeking the lowest common denominator, but all it is is simple economics. Since the Industrial Revolution the most important three words of any business plan are "cheap" and "good enough." Someone realized, quite correctly, that small pleasantries over a hum of numbness was and is more appealing to the risk-adverse mind than “the bright face of danger.” A vanishing few people seem to mind hopping from fad to fad, style to style, living your youth doing what you are told is hip, living your old age remembering your life with a mixture of embarrassment and nostalgia.

But it is possible, I think, I hope, it is possible that some have a desperate irrepressible need for excellence. To us …

Welcome Back, Football

We're gearing up for the 2013 season. Soon I'll have an announcement about our new contributors, and there will be some cool new features this year.

In the meantime ANS kicks off the season with a partnership with NBC Sports. The internet simulcast of each Sunday Night Football game (and Thursday night specials, like tonight) will include a small version of the ANS win probability graph. The SNF simulcasts are already great, and this will add an analytic dimension for the masses. I've regularly watched the simulcasts over past couple years because viewers can select which camera to view the game. I'm a fan of the overhead cable camera view, which lets me see the stunts, blocking, coverages, and routes from the same angle you'd see playing Madden.

 

Call for Writers: Update

Thanks to everyone who responded to the call for writers. Please be assured that all responses have been collected and will get a thorough look. I've combed through the spam filter so nothing gets lost. I'm over a week behind where I wanted to be in terms of reviewing them, but I'll get there. I intend to contact everyone over the next two weeks to finalize things.

How to Lie with Statistics

Stochastic Football

 

Statistics make me cringe. Not the upstanding work done by Brian but too much analysis done by too much of the greater sportswriting community. That word, “analysis,” it doesn't help matters. Like many backwards things Western Civilization, modern usage derives from Aristotle. Real analysis, that's a marvel. What I encounter throughout the web would be better labeled: statistical rhetoric: the use of statistics to forward a previously held opinion. There's this great quote by Wayne C. Booth about critical theory—specifically the idea of showing versus telling in fiction writing—and how it disseminated from scholarly critics, down to commercial critics … well, I'll just share it:

“[T]he legitimate defense of the new soon froze into dogma. … [W]hen such rule-making descended further into the hands of unabashed commercial critics, it was simplified to the point of caricature.”

This is the progression: from new to accepted to—in some skeletal, bastardized form—the mother truckin law. Wanna be taken seriously? Gotta speak the language. For the modern sportswriter statistics are jargon, argot and shibboleth all in one. No wonder an old hat striving for relevance rushed to create an eponymous, um, effect? despite its obvious bogusness.

Brian attracted me to Advanced NFL Stats through his work exposing the phoniness of the so-called Curse of 370. His simple, clearly worded argument of why said curse was cooked up, and either indicative of blithe error or chicanery, challenged me to be careful and inquiring instead of gullible. So in honor of Mr. Burke and his fine and reputable site, I now intend the exact opposite. Let us together learn how to lie with statistics.

Why Standard Fantasy Football Rots and How To Fix It

My mother-in-law plays a dice game called Farkel. It's a game of simple math, but mostly a game of chance—more War than chess, more cleromancy than game theory. If I were stuck with her in a windowless room without my toothbrush but with a woman named Estelle, if we were stuck for all eternity, perhaps we could determine if her, ahem, extreme prudence or my more reckless style were superior. But as-is there's a lot of guessing, a lot of premature revelry and a lot of empty opining about strategy. If I may: the game sucks. It's an excuse for people of a certain age to get together and drink.

Fantasy football is a $70 billion market. I can't believe I just wrote that. That … that number was not planned.

… give me a second …

23 million people play fantasy football, and while I could not find an exact number, a not terribly scientific or thorough accounting of the number of Yahoo public leagues versus the number of Yahoo private leagues, indicates most play with standard rules. And many customized leagues are close enough to standard rules to, for my purposes, be comparable.

Fantasy football played by standard rules is a rotten game, requiring little skill, that, in its crappiness is a bad reason even to get together and drink. Here's why:

Bombast Revisited; A Partial List of My Cognitive Biases

Stochastic Football 

 

Bombast Revisited

 

It's said a joke explained is a joke ruined. So how about satire? I wrote a loudmouth, accusatory post. It was fun. My intention: to appropriate the tools of popular sports punditry: attention grabbing headline, us vs. them framing, a hectoring tone, abundant self-assurance, straw men galore, unsourced data and an adamantine sense of moral authority. And here's what happened: the response was almost universally negative, and often outright caustic. But the post netted big traffic: the most since Brian's point/counterpoint on Aaron Rodger's extension, and more than double any post written since May.

Here's a Thought

If it's ok for coaches to use the preseason to experiment with Peyton Manning in the pistol and risk Jay Cutler in the read-option, then it's ok to give your punt team a game off. Put away the 21 personnel I-formation and go with the 11 personnel on all four downs. Go for it. Be aggressive. Test the limits. It's the preseason. There are three other preseason games and 40 practices for you to hash out roster spots 52 and 53 on your punt and field goal units.