Playoff Projections - Week 13

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Weekly Game Probabilities

Game probabilities for week 13 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.

This week make a cursory comparison between the 49ers' Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith.

Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 13

GB takes the biggest hit this week after their loss to the Giants, falling from #7 in efficiency to #12. It made me realize that focusing on the rankings exaggerates the movement of teams up and down the rankings. GB actually only dropped 2 percentage points in terms of generic winning probability, from 0.56 to 0.54. That's a fairly modest revision to an estimate of team strength. A lot of movement up and down the rankings can be due to other teams leapfrogging. For example the GWP of NE, WAS, DET, and CIN and NYG all improved slightly, magnifying GB's apparent slide down the rankings.

I discussed CAR last week. The other glaring difference between these rankings and other rankings is BAL. They're 19th in terms of opponent-adjusted efficiency. It's easy to see why in the second table below. Their 9-2 record is largely due to some very good fortune in some high leverage situations, as we witnessed last Sunday. My system here is basically saying they're an average team that's faced a relatively weak schedule so far. If you flip a coin 11 times, it will come up at least 9 heads rarely enough that I'm convinced they are probably significantly better than their efficiency numbers indicate.

The biggest difference between this system and others is that it heavily regresses turnovers. Turnovers of all kinds are extremely random, even for the best and worst quarterbacks and teams. The one category BAL exceeds in is offensive turnovers. While it may be true that the overwhelming majority of teams do not maintain consistent turnover rates, there can be exceptions. Because I follow BAL closely, I see how this might be the case for them. The bulk of offensive turnovers are by the quarterback--interceptions obviously, but they are the prime fumblers as well. Joe Flacco seems happy to accept an overthrow to the sideline on 3rd down or give in to the pass rush while protecting the ball. It can be frustrating to fans, but it may be working for the Ravens. Throughout his career, Flacco's WPA has significantly exceeded his EPA, and that's the case again this season. He's had a few game winning drives over the years, but a lot of that extra WPA comes from playing situational football--taking the smart sack or throwing the ball away when a turnover would be exceptionally damaging. As with most things, the truth is probably in the middle. It may be that part of their consistently low turnover rate is good luck, and part of it is by design.

Here are the efficiency rankings for week 13. Click on the table headers to sort. Raw efficiency data is in the second table below.

Fourth Downs in the New Overtime: First Possession

This may have been the most difficult, challenging analysis I've done. No joke. The new OT format is more complex than it seems. There are three distinct 'game states' in which a team can find itself:

1. The initial drive of the first possession (A TD wins, a turnover or punt triggers Sudden Death (SD), and a FG triggers State 2.)
2. The team down by 3 now has one possession to match the FG (triggering SD) or score a TD to win.
3. Sudden Death

The possibilities are illustrated in the event tree below, along with some back-of-the-napkin transition probabilities I made back when the new rules were first proposed. (State 1 is "1st Poss". State 2 is the branch under "2nd Poss" that follows a FG in the 1st Poss. Sudden death is self-explanatory and occurs after a no-score in the 1st Poss or after a FG is matched in the 2nd Poss.)

Sunday's Numbers Have Been Crunched

Sunday's numbers are now available, including advanced stat box scores, top players of the week, team stats, and season leader boards.

• Advanced stat box scores
• Top QBs of the week
• Top RBs of the week
• Top WRs of the week
• Top TEs of the week
• Top Defenders of the week
• Advanced team stats
• Offensive player season leaders
• Defender season leaders
• Team Viz
• QB Viz
• RB Viz

Niners Nine-Minute Drive

Up 28-21 with the ball nearing the end of the third quarter, the Niners had a 78% of winning the game over the streaking Saints. That 78% does not account for the prolific Saints offense, though. What followed was a nine-and-a-half minute drive, lasting deep into the fourth quarter, draining precious time that Drew Brees would need in order to make a comeback. Any Saints fan -- or someone whose fantasy team depends on the Saints offense like myself -- could not have been more frustrated watching the Niners rumble down the field over the course of 17 plays and 85 yards.

Let's take a look at the evolution of the drive using our Markov model:

One Play Remaining before the Half on the Goal Line

IND QB Andrew Luck spiked the ball with 1 sec remaining in the 2nd quarter, bringing up a 3rd and goal from the 1-yd line. Without a moment of hesitation, acting head coach Bruce Arians ran in the FG unit for the chip-shot. The FG was good and IND took at 13-6 lead over BUF into the locker room. Was this the smart call?

Let's set aside the score and look at the general case. It's a special situation because there is no subsequent kickoff. Instead of being worth 2.7 Expected Points (EP), a FG is worth a full 3 EP. And a TD would be worth a full 7 EP instead of 6.7. The offense would take the full value of the score.

The expected value of each choice is straightforward. It's just the probability of success * the value of the score. In the case of the FG it would be:

How Much Did Jim Schwartz's Attempted Challenge Cost the Lions?

Had Schwartz not thrown the challenge flag on Forsett's run, the play would have been reviewed and certainly overturned. That would mean a 3rd and 2 for HOU on their own 27 with 6:40 or so in the 3rd quarter. Down by 10 points, that means at 0.18 Win Probability (WP) for HOU.

But because Schwartz threw the challenge flag on a play that would have been otherwise reviewed automatically, he received an unsportsmanlike penalty. The result was that the play was not reviewed by rule, and Forsett's TD stood. That gave DET a touchback up by 3, giving HOU a 0.35 WP.

That's a cost of 0.17 WP. It essentially doubled HOU's chances of winning at that point.