QB Wins Added 2

In the last post, I began constructing a passer rating system that, to the greatest degree possible, includes performance variables controlled by the quarterback alone and avoids redundant use of variables that measure the same attribute.

The new system includes completion percentage, interception rate, and sack yards per attempt. The previous post discussed completion percentage, and this one will cover interception rate. Each QB's stats are computed in terms of how many wins they add, on average, to his team over the course of a season.

While most fans and analysts consider how many inteptions a QB has thrown, they ignore the fact that various QBs have a wide range of passing attempts, even among QBs with the same number of games played. Interceptions per pass attempt is a better indicator of a QB's true tendency to throw interceptions.

The table below ranks QB's interception rates in 2006. Only QBs with over 100 pass attempts are included. Theh column labled "Int Rate > Avg" is the amount above (or below) the average NFL interception rate. Negative numbers are better here because they mean fewer interceptions per attempt. The column labled "Int Rate Wins" are the wins added (or lost) due to the interception rate of the listed QB. Postive numbers are (obviously) better here. The added wins are computed by the efficiency win model Ipreviously established.

Player	Int Rate	Int Rate > Avg	Int Rate Wins
Damon Huard	0.004	-0.027	1.385
Jeff Garcia	0.011	-0.021	1.060
Marc Bulger	0.013	-0.018	0.913
Mark Brunell	0.015	-0.016	0.826
Peyton Manning	0.016	-0.016	0.788
Donovan McNabb	0.019	-0.013	0.650
Philip Rivers	0.019	-0.012	0.622
Tim Rattay	0.019	-0.012	0.611
Drew Brees	0.019	-0.012	0.608
Daunte Culpepper	0.022	-0.010	0.485
Tom Brady	0.023	-0.009	0.443
Carson Palmer	0.024	-0.007	0.360
Jake Delhomme	0.025	-0.007	0.334
Steve McNair	0.025	-0.007	0.329
David Carr	0.026	-0.005	0.256
Byron Leftwich	0.027	-0.005	0.248
Bruce Gradkowski	0.027	-0.005	0.243
Jason Campbell	0.028	-0.003	0.169
Brett Favre	0.029	-0.003	0.151
Kurt Warner	0.029	-0.003	0.132
Matt Leinart	0.031	-0.001	0.033
J.P. Losman	0.032	0.000	-0.005
Chad Pennington	0.032	0.000	-0.022
Michael Vick	0.032	0.001	-0.046
Brad Johnson	0.033	0.002	-0.077
Eli Manning	0.033	0.002	-0.092
Alex Smith	0.035	0.003	-0.173
Vince Young	0.035	0.004	-0.183
Jay Cutler	0.035	0.004	-0.187
Jon Kitna	0.036	0.004	-0.207
David Garrard	0.036	0.004	-0.227
Tony Romo	0.037	0.006	-0.284
Joey Harrington	0.037	0.006	-0.288
Matt Hasselbeck	0.039	0.007	-0.371
Jake Plummer	0.039	0.008	-0.398
Rex Grossman	0.040	0.008	-0.429
Aaron Brooks	0.040	0.008	-0.429
Charlie Frye	0.042	0.010	-0.508
Trent Green	0.043	0.012	-0.604
Andrew Walter	0.045	0.013	-0.680
Drew Bledsoe	0.045	0.014	-0.691
Ben Roethlisberger	0.047	0.015	-0.770
Seneca Wallace	0.047	0.016	-0.797
Chris Simms	0.062	0.030	-1.537
Derek Anderson	0.064	0.032	-1.641
Average	0.032

In the next post, I'll look at sacks. Then finally, I'll pull it all together for a comprehensive QB win-rating.