QB Wins Added 3

Recently, I began constructing a passer rating system that, to the greatest degree possible, includes performance variables controlled by the quarterback alone and avoids redundant use of variables that measure the same attribute. This improved system includes completion percentage, interception rate, and sack yards per attempt. The previous two posts discussed completion percentage and interception rate. This post will examine sacks. Each of the stats used in the rating system are computed in terms of how many wins they add, on average, to a QB's team over the course of a season. The wins added are based on the previously established regression model based on team efficieny stats.

More and more, I'm coming to realize that sacks are far more dependent on the quarterback than on his pass protection. A quarterback's mobility, release, decision-making, and pocket presence all are critically important. I'm using sack yardage rate instead of total absolute sacks for two reasons. First, the number of pass attempts must be accounted for. We would expect a QB with more pass attempts to be sacked more often than a QB who passes less often, given equal abilities to prevent sacks. Second, sack yards yield more information about the QB than sacks alone. Some QBs have fewer sacks, but because they often gamble by scrambling deep in the backfield, they give up large numbers of sack yards. Does the QB tend to step up in the pocket or drift backward? As you'll see, some of the QBs considered the most mobile actually give up some of the most sack yards.

The table below lists each quarterback with at least 100 pass attempts in 2006, their sack yards, and their sack yardage rates (sack yards per pass attempt). The column labeled "Sk Yd Rate > Avg" is the sack yardage rate above (or below) league average. The next column, "+Sk Yd Wins" lists the wins added based on sack yards for each quarterback. The list is sorted in order of best to worst.

PlayerSk YdsSk Yd

SkYdRate > Avg+Sk Wins
Peyton Manning860.15-0.280.44
Tim Rattay180.17-0.260.41
Steve McNair840.17-0.260.41
Drew Brees1050.18-0.250.39
Jeff Garcia400.21-0.230.36
Brett Favre1340.21-0.220.35
Byron Leftwich480.25-0.180.29
Jason Campbell550.26-0.180.28
Rex Grossman1420.28-0.150.24
Joey Harrington1160.29-0.150.23
Chris Simms320.29-0.140.22
Philip Rivers1440.30-0.140.22
Tom Brady1750.32-0.110.17
Jake Plummer1110.33-0.100.16
Chad Pennington1720.33-0.100.16
Vince Young1290.34-0.100.15
Mark Brunell920.34-0.100.15
Eli Manning1860.34-0.090.15
Tony Romo1240.35-0.090.14
Jake Delhomme1670.37-0.070.10
Matt Leinart1580.40-0.040.06
Damon Huard1060.41-0.030.04
Bruce Gradkowski1460.41-0.020.03
Donovan McNabb1400.42-0.020.03
Carson Palmer2330.42-0.010.02
Alex Smith2020.42-0.010.02
Brad Johnson2000.43-0.010.01
David Garrard1190.460.02-0.03
David Carr2400.500.06-0.10
Derek Anderson660.530.09-0.15
Seneca Wallace830.540.10-0.16
Ben Roethlisberger2800.540.11-0.17
Matt Hasselbeck2290.570.13-0.21
Jay Cutler850.570.13-0.21
Kurt Warner1040.570.14-0.22
Trent Green1270.570.14-0.22
Marc Bulger3660.570.14-0.22
Drew Bledsoe1070.580.14-0.23
Jon Kitna3880.590.15-0.24
Charlie Frye2620.600.17-0.26
J.P. Losman3320.700.26-0.41
Michael Vick3030.700.27-0.42
Andrew Walter2560.800.36-0.57
Aaron Brooks1740.800.36-0.57
Daunte Culpepper1500.970.53-0.84

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