2007 Final Regular Season Team Efficiency Ratings

Final regular season NFL team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed (Opp GWP), which can be considered to-date strength of schedule. GWP is adjusted to reflect the strength of past opponents. Offensive ranking (OGWP/O Rank) is based on each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. D Rank is vice-versa. Rankings are based on a logistic regression model applied to data from all 256 regular season games. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.

The Bills, Texans, and Dolphins had the toughest schedules. The easiest belonged to the 49ers, Cardinals, and Packers. The best defense this year belonged to the Colts, followed closely by the Titans. The Chargers came on strong in the second half of the year to claim third. The Saints had the worst. The best offense belonged to the Patriots, followed by the Jaguars, Colts, Cowboys, and Packers. The 49ers edged out the Raiders for the worst offense.

Click on the table headers to sort.

1 NE0.870.530.8010.614
2 IND0.850.540.6830.691
3 JAX0.770.540.7220.559
4 DAL0.750.500.6640.588
5 TB0.730.450.6360.616
6 SD0.660.490.53150.643
7 PIT0.650.470.55130.615
8 GB0.640.440.6350.5013
9 PHI0.620.540.6070.4915
10 TEN0.620.550.43220.682
11 SEA0.600.390.56110.5212
12 WAS0.600.540.50170.607
13 DEN0.520.500.5980.4228
14 NYG0.520.520.44200.5510
15 HOU0.490.560.54140.4229
16 MIN0.490.450.53160.4620
17 CLE0.480.450.56100.4423
18 NYJ0.470.550.43230.4916
19 CIN0.460.470.5890.4230
20 BUF0.460.570.48190.4918
21 NO0.400.500.55120.3432
22 BAL0.400.510.41250.5014
23 ATL0.380.510.48180.4326
24 CAR0.370.530.39270.5211
25 ARI0.350.420.44210.4619
26 KC0.340.510.35280.4917
27 MIA0.340.550.39260.4231
28 CHI0.290.500.33300.4521
29 DET0.280.510.41240.4325
30 STL0.250.470.34290.4522
31 OAK0.240.520.33310.4327
32 SF0.150.450.22320.4324

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