In-Game Win Probabilities 0.3

No new improvements to the in-game win-probability model this week as I was out of the country. There are still some bugs (mostly due to the data feed), but all games now get a near real-time graph, and there are separate pages for ongoing games and final games. It considers score, possession, field position, and time remaining. Down and distance adjustments are still in work. Check it out at for this week's games. You can see last week's games here. Feedback is always more than welcome. It can be pretty mesmerizing. I'll keep it on-line through MNF.

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7 Responses to “In-Game Win Probabilities 0.3”

  1. Ty Will says:


    This blog rules! I accidentally found you on Professor Berri's WoW Journal, and in one afternoon you have entered the pantheon of my must check sites.

    BTW, amongst all the experts I watched this weekend, you were the only one besides Boomer Esiason to pick the Packers over the Colts. I tracked ur "Win Probability" chart all game. What a killer feature.

    I run a little NBA blog called Bucks Diary where I try to incorporate statistical analysis into my writings. Its complete amateur hour compared to what youre doing here.

    For what its worth, I'm going to hype the hell out of this site in my next post.

    Ty from Bucks Diary

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Thanks, Ty! What's your link?

  3. Anonymous says:

    I've got to admit, I did not see the Pack over the Colts this weekend. Taking the season as a whole I can understand how DAVE over at the FO site and the win probs posted here had the Packers favored. But, (I know, I am using short-sighted hindsight here) since the 4th quarter of the IND-HOU game two weeks ago I really thought the Colts roll would continue. The +1 to +1.5 that was out there later in the week appears to have had 80% backing the Colts per Sports Insight.

    Myself, I will not play GB games being a Pack fan however, I have to ask: What was it that sharp bettors and the Advanced Stats Win Probs saw in the Pack?

  4. Anonymous says:

    I think there may be something screwy with the Arizona-Dallas chart from the previous week.

  5. Brian Burke says:


    What you mean the time travel in the 4th quarter?

    That's because of my really bad kluge for overtime. I don't have a good model for it yet, so I artificially forced the time remaining to be 3 min in the 4th qtr for every overtime play. The resulting graph got really whacky.

    There are some other goofy results too. The very first WP in every game was either 1.0 or 0.0 at kickoff, so the very first line you see on the graph is wrong. I've fixed that bug and a few others this past week.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Ah, I see. Yea, I think that was it. Thanks for the explanation.

  7. Derek says:

    Hey Brian,
    Last season I developed a model of win probability based on statistics like pass and rush efficiency. I was wondering if you wanted to combine models and see how they dovetail.

    Let me know via e-mail.

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