ESPN Magazine Article on Win Probability

The new killer stat according to ESPN's Peter Keating. The current issue is on sale now, but Insider subscribers can read it online. Peter is ESPN's writer covering sports analytics. He interviewed me for the article, and he clearly understands how useful WP can be. It's not just for measuring the impact or predicting a game's outcome while in progress. It's about strategic decisions. Don't be surprised as this stuff gradually becomes more mainstream.

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7 Responses to “ESPN Magazine Article on Win Probability”

  1. Bruce D. says:

    #1. Congrats Brian! Even the mainstream media knows a good thing when they see it.

    #2. Don't sell out, keep it coming on your own web-site(already I can't read the article unless I'm an "insider").

  2. James says:

    Read it in the Mag while waiting for a haircut of all places. I'm glad they went right to the source!

  3. Nathan Jahnke says:

    Congrats. Very exciting stuff.

  4. Adam says:

    Great to see you in there. And he did seem to understand the concept. Would be great if announcers actually incorporated WP into their analysis, but I'm guessing Collingsworth the only one that could comprehend that punting on 4th and 1 from the opponents 40 makes no sense.

    Not holding breath though. It works on poker shows because its taped and they show you the three hands in 16 hours of play where the guy with 10% chance of winning pulls his card on the river. No network going to keep the WP on the screen on fear it shows you Team X has a 2% chance of winning. Would love if they actually analyzed decision making process of key plays like you do here. I'm sure given the choice of that or the back story of some DB, they'll go with the back story (or remind you that Idol is back!).

  5. Nate says:

    Maybe my roommates will finally stop snickering when I talk about this stuff... they refuse to recognize stats that aren't on TV. It's tiring to hear evaluations of a quarterback's performance based on completion percentage, total yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. It's also tiring to be the only one that didn't think Atlanta was very good.


  6. Vlad Kiperman says:

    I'm a little surprised that this type of stuff isn't required reading for anyone who wants to coach, or analyze, football.

  7. Misha says:

    I live in Atlanta and the current excuse is that the Falcons ran into a "buzzsaw," that they just played the wrong team at the wrong time. I trust Brian's analysis that any teams other than SEA or NO would have been a "buzzsaw." GB is just better.

    ATL use to make these same remarks about the Braves playoff losses. At some point dont you just have to think that you aren't that great. Stop making excuses get better and BE THE BUZZSAW!

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