As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.
The AFC wildcard competitors appear to be either BAL or PIT, depending on who loses the division, plus IND, MIA, SD, and NYJ. In the NFC, it's looking like either CHI or GB, whichever team comes in second, plus SEA, DAL, MIN, and a bunch at 10% or below. Despite what the numbers say, it looks like NO has improved significantly beyond their early-season lows and have a better shot than indicated.
These numbers do not count IND's win last night. Sorry about that. They were heavily favored by the model, so the effect is modest. For up to date numbers, you can always go straight to nfl-forecast.com.
| AFC EAST |
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NE | 63 | 25 | 10 | 2 |
 MIA | 29 | 40 | 22 | 9 |
 NYJ | 6 | 24 | 44 | 26 |
 BUF | 2 | 11 | 24 | 63 |
| AFC NORTH |
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 BAL | 44 | 48 | 8 | 0 |
 PIT | 54 | 39 | 7 | 1 |
 CIN | 2 | 13 | 70 | 15 |
 CLE | 0 | 1 | 15 | 84 |
| AFC SOUTH |
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 HOU | 97 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 IND | 3 | 84 | 13 | 1 |
 TEN | 0 | 12 | 66 | 22 |
 JAC | 0 | 1 | 21 | 78 |
| AFC WEST |
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 DEN | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 SD | 2 | 60 | 38 | 0 |
 OAK | 0 | 38 | 60 | 2 |
 KC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 97 |
| NFC EAST |
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NYG | 76 | 20 | 4 | 1 |
 DAL | 17 | 48 | 24 | 11 |
 PHI | 4 | 18 | 39 | 39 |
 WAS | 3 | 14 | 33 | 49 |
| NFC NORTH |
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 CHI | 56 | 30 | 10 | 3 |
 GB | 32 | 37 | 20 | 10 |
 DET | 7 | 19 | 35 | 39 |
 MIN | 5 | 14 | 34 | 48 |
| NFC SOUTH |
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 ATL | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 TB | 2 | 47 | 35 | 16 |
 CAR | 0 | 41 | 41 | 18 |
 NO | 0 | 11 | 23 | 66 |
| NFC WEST |
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 SF | 92 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
 SEA | 7 | 69 | 19 | 6 |
 STL | 1 | 14 | 47 | 37 |
 ARI | 0 | 9 | 34 | 57 |
| AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding |
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| HOU | 79 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 100 |
| DEN | 13 | 52 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 99 |
| NE | 4 | 10 | 19 | 30 | 7 | 9 | 79 |
| BAL | 2 | 11 | 19 | 13 | 19 | 12 | 76 |
| PIT | 2 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 80 |
| IND | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 17 | 41 |
| MIA | 0 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 53 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 22 |
| NYJ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| TEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding |
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| ATL | 52 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 99 |
| SF | 25 | 33 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 97 |
| CHI | 13 | 17 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 11 | 87 |
| NYG | 7 | 14 | 22 | 33 | 4 | 6 | 86 |
| GB | 3 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 21 | 16 | 69 |
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 20 | 53 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 32 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| NO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Does this model just factor in straight win probability for each week? If so, the Colts are potentially underrated, as they play Houston in week 17 (when the Texans will probably have the #1 seed locked up and have their starters benched). The Bucs are potentially in the same boat, too, as they play at Atlanta (which I'm sure is a low WP game for them on paper) in the final week.
How did you determine the order to list the teams in the playoff seeding? Shouldn't it be in order of Total Probability?
flex, I think it's sorted by 1st then 2nd then 3rd...
Interesting how wide open the NFC still looks. Every team with at least a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
Except Brian couldn't resist putting BLT above PIT...fair and balanced?
"flex, I think it's sorted by 1st then 2nd then 3rd..."
I thought that too, but that doesn't explain Dallas' position.
Well Brian just put it in the same order it was already in on http://files.nfl-forecast.com/.
I know in past weeks it was sorted like anonymous said, don't know what happened this week.
It looks like it's sorted by "first seed" probability. The rounding just masks the relative position.
So, TB may have a 0.2% chance of getting the first seed, but DAL only has 0.1% (making the numbers up).
Dallas doesn't have to catch an undefeated team like Tampa Bay does in order to win their division, so the overall playoff outlook is much rosier for the Cowboys.
@Mike, also, Dallas is a better team by Brian's rankings, and they have the easier part of their schedule to come.
Brian, where do you put BAL's win probability this week if both of OAK's top RBs are out?
If you had to guess...