Playoff Forecast - Week 11


As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

IND really improved their wildcard chances this week. It's the Colts and everybody else gunning for a wildcard berth. The other battle in the AFC is going to be for the 2nd seed between BAL, DEN, PIT, and NE.

In the NFC the wildcard chase is SEA and everybody else. If DAL gets in, it looks like they'll have to win the division. I still think NO is undervalued by my model.

These numbers do not count BUF's win over MIA last night. Sorry about that. For up to date numbers, you can always go straight to nfl-forecast.com.




AFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NE831330
MIA13412918
NYJ3274030
BUF1192852
AFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
BAL583750
PIT4048111
CIN2147310
CLE011188
AFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
HOU97300
IND381160
TEN016795
JAC00595
AFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
DEN97200
SD274240
OAK024715
KC00595
NFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NYG563491
DAL3643175
WAS5143645
PHI393849
NFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
CHI4434147
GB40321711
MIN11224126
DET4112857
NFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
ATL94610
TB5443220
CAR1333827
NO1172953
NFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
SF742330
SEA2463112
STL185238
ARI063459



AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
HOU8772030100
DEN34429211199
NE51624392389
BAL2222311201290
PIT1101713201778
IND1110332460
MIA002102621
SD001181121
CIN00114915
NYJ0002259
BUF0001136
TEN0000369
OAK0000123
CLE0000000
KC0000000
JAC0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
ATL49241551297
SF232819512793
CHI1314134191377
GB711156141468
SEA4983291770
NYG4815296869
MIN01554925
TB01224817
DET01215716
DAL014312543
NO0000124
STL0011136
ARI0000123
WAS0005016
CAR0001134
PHI0003004



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2 Responses to “Playoff Forecast - Week 11”

  1. Chris says:

    The results above are tainted by a mistake I made in coding the outcome of the Denver Carolina game last week. I've fixed the error on nfl-forecast.com. The biggest change is to Denver's playoff seeding odds. Sorry about that.

  2. Ian Simcox says:

    I had a thought about these playoff probabilities. Would it be any use seeing which teams still 'control their own fate', to use the tv cliché?

    Obviously if you're a Miami fan, seeing your team has a 21% chance to make the playoffs isn't great, but I wonder if it might also be useful to say whether or not they make the playoffs with absolute certainty by winning all their remaining games, or whether they are also relying on other results going their way.

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