As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.
IND really improved their wildcard chances this week. It's the Colts and everybody else gunning for a wildcard berth. The other battle in the AFC is going to be for the 2nd seed between BAL, DEN, PIT, and NE.
In the NFC the wildcard chase is SEA and everybody else. If DAL gets in, it looks like they'll have to win the division. I still think NO is undervalued by my model.
These numbers do not count BUF's win over MIA last night. Sorry about that. For up to date numbers, you can always go straight to nfl-forecast.com.
| AFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NE | 83 | 13 | 3 | 0 |
 MIA | 13 | 41 | 29 | 18 |
 NYJ | 3 | 27 | 40 | 30 |
 BUF | 1 | 19 | 28 | 52 |
| AFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 BAL | 58 | 37 | 5 | 0 |
 PIT | 40 | 48 | 11 | 1 |
 CIN | 2 | 14 | 73 | 10 |
 CLE | 0 | 1 | 11 | 88 |
| AFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 HOU | 97 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 IND | 3 | 81 | 16 | 0 |
 TEN | 0 | 16 | 79 | 5 |
 JAC | 0 | 0 | 5 | 95 |
| AFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 DEN | 97 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 SD | 2 | 74 | 24 | 0 |
 OAK | 0 | 24 | 71 | 5 |
 KC | 0 | 0 | 5 | 95 |
| NFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NYG | 56 | 34 | 9 | 1 |
 DAL | 36 | 43 | 17 | 5 |
 WAS | 5 | 14 | 36 | 45 |
 PHI | 3 | 9 | 38 | 49 |
| NFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 CHI | 44 | 34 | 14 | 7 |
 GB | 40 | 32 | 17 | 11 |
 MIN | 11 | 22 | 41 | 26 |
 DET | 4 | 11 | 28 | 57 |
| NFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 ATL | 94 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
 TB | 5 | 44 | 32 | 20 |
 CAR | 1 | 33 | 38 | 27 |
 NO | 1 | 17 | 29 | 53 |
| NFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 SF | 74 | 23 | 3 | 0 |
 SEA | 24 | 63 | 11 | 2 |
 STL | 1 | 8 | 52 | 38 |
 ARI | 0 | 6 | 34 | 59 |
| AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| HOU | 87 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 100 |
| DEN | 3 | 44 | 29 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 99 |
| NE | 5 | 16 | 24 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 89 |
| BAL | 2 | 22 | 23 | 11 | 20 | 12 | 90 |
| PIT | 1 | 10 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 17 | 78 |
| IND | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 24 | 60 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 21 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
| NYJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| TEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| ATL | 49 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 97 |
| SF | 23 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 93 |
| CHI | 13 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 77 |
| GB | 7 | 11 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 68 |
| SEA | 4 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 70 |
| NYG | 4 | 8 | 15 | 29 | 6 | 8 | 69 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 25 |
| TB | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 |
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 2 | 5 | 43 |
| NO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
The results above are tainted by a mistake I made in coding the outcome of the Denver Carolina game last week. I've fixed the error on nfl-forecast.com. The biggest change is to Denver's playoff seeding odds. Sorry about that.
I had a thought about these playoff probabilities. Would it be any use seeing which teams still 'control their own fate', to use the tv cliché?
Obviously if you're a Miami fan, seeing your team has a 21% chance to make the playoffs isn't great, but I wonder if it might also be useful to say whether or not they make the playoffs with absolute certainty by winning all their remaining games, or whether they are also relying on other results going their way.