Playoff Projections - Week 16

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

It's always fun to go back earlier in the season to see how far off the initial projections were. In Week 9, the projected division winners in the AFC were NE, PIT, HOU, and DEN. (BAL and PIT were about 50/50, as were NE and MIA(!).) The most likely wildcards were BAL and MIA. OAK looked to be a better shot than either IND or CIN. Ouch.

In the NFC the forecast winners were NYG, CHI, ATL, and SF, although CHI was only at 50%. The NFC wildcards were GB and SEA. Not too shabby.

AFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NE	100	0	0	0
NYJ	0	54	43	3
MIA	0	24	46	30
BUF	0	22	11	67
AFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
BAL	76	24	0	0
CIN	12	41	47	0
PIT	12	35	51	2
CLE	0	0	2	98
AFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
HOU	100	0	0	0
IND	0	100	0	0
TEN	0	0	100	0
JAC	0	0	0	100
AFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
DEN	100	0	0	0
SD	0	92	8	0
OAK	0	8	92	0
KC	0	0	0	100
NFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
WAS	55	25	20	0
DAL	30	34	36	0
NYG	15	41	44	0
PHI	0	0	0	100
NFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
GB	100	0	0	0
MIN	0	60	40	0
CHI	0	40	60	0
DET	0	0	0	100
NFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
ATL	100	0	0	0
NO	0	46	30	24
TB	0	29	46	25
CAR	0	25	24	51
NFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
SF	94	6	0	0
SEA	6	94	0	0
STL	0	0	97	3
ARI	0	0	3	97

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
HOU	91	5	4	0	0	0	100
DEN	8	78	14	0	0	0	100
NE	2	17	68	14	0	0	100
BAL	0	0	14	61	6	18	100
CIN	0	0	0	12	4	37	53
PIT	0	0	0	12	7	26	46
IND	0	0	0	0	82	18	100
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
BUF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NYJ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
JAC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TEN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
ATL	90	7	2	0	0	0	100
SF	6	65	23	0	6	0	100
GB	4	24	68	4	0	0	100
SEA	0	4	2	0	74	16	95
WAS	0	0	2	52	2	15	72
NYG	0	0	2	13	14	22	51
DAL	0	0	0	30	0	4	34
MIN	0	0	0	0	2	21	24
CHI	0	0	0	0	2	22	24
NO	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CAR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0