Sunday's Numbers Have Been Crunched

Sunday's numbers are now available, including advanced stat box scores, top players of the week, team stats, and season leader boards.

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1 Responses to “Sunday's Numbers Have Been Crunched”

  1. Anonymous says:

    There was one particular play this past Sunday that I thought would be interesting to analyze. The Saints had a 4th and 1 against the Cowboys with less than 2 minutes left while the Cowboys had no timeouts, if I remember the scenario correctly. I believe that the better play in terms of win probability would be to go for it, but the Saints elected to punt instead.

    By going for it, I will assume a 50% conversion percentage, an 80% chance of the Cowboys scoring a touchdown from the Saints' 40, a 50% chance of the Cowboys scoring a touchdown from their own 20, and overtime being 50% WP for each team. The Saints' chance of winning while going for it is then (about):

    .50 (converting a 1st down) + .50 * .20 (failing to convert but stopping the Cowboys) + .50 * .80 * .5 (the Cowboys score a TD, but the Saints win in OT) = 80%

    The chance of winning on a punt = .50 (Cowboys fail to score a TD) + .50 * .50 (Saints win in OT) = 75%

    I have tried to explain the scenarios to some of my family members who are football fans but are fans of more traditional coaching. Is there anything that you would like to add or change from my analysis to determine if my opinion was correct over that of the Saints' coaches in that situation? I hope that I was able to explain myself well, and thank you in advance for your response.

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