Team Efficiency Stats - Week 17

Who's surprised by the suddenly dominant Seahawks? Not readers of ANS, who saw that SEA was ranked   5th in adjusted team efficiency as far back as following week 9, when they were 5-4 and on almost no one's radar. After week 7, the model had them ranked 6th in the league. I'm obviously cherry picking one example, but that's really the value of this sort of model. We can see where it diverges from actual wins and losses to ask questions and maybe learn something we didn't know before. In this case, we could see that SEA was improving from week to week, had faced one of the toughest schedules in the early season, and was quietly putting together a very solid season.

Here are the team efficiency rankings heading into week 17. See the second table below for the raw inputs. Click the table headers to sort.

RANK	TEAM	LAST WK	GWP	Opp GWP	O RANK	D RANK
1	DEN	1	0.72	0.49	3	3
2	SF	2	0.68	0.52	5	2
3	SEA	3	0.66	0.52	4	7
4	CAR	4	0.63	0.51	7	6
5	GB	9	0.59	0.50	8	8
6	ATL	6	0.59	0.50	9	18
7	HOU	5	0.58	0.47	10	12
8	WAS	8	0.56	0.50	2	24
9	NE	7	0.56	0.50	1	31
10	STL	11	0.53	0.52	15	11
11	NYG	10	0.52	0.53	12	25
12	CHI	17	0.52	0.51	27	1
13	DET	14	0.52	0.50	11	20
14	PIT	13	0.51	0.48	22	4
15	CIN	12	0.51	0.47	20	9
16	NO	15	0.50	0.53	6	29
17	DAL	16	0.50	0.52	13	22
18	BAL	20	0.49	0.50	16	16
19	MIA	18	0.49	0.48	19	17
20	TB	21	0.47	0.52	14	26
21	NYJ	19	0.46	0.49	30	10
22	BUF	22	0.45	0.48	18	21
23	MIN	27	0.44	0.51	26	13
24	SD	24	0.44	0.50	28	14
25	CLE	23	0.43	0.49	25	15
26	PHI	26	0.43	0.51	23	19
27	IND	25	0.42	0.45	17	32
28	OAK	28	0.41	0.50	21	23
29	TEN	29	0.38	0.49	24	27
30	ARI	30	0.36	0.54	32	5
31	KC	31	0.34	0.49	31	28
32	JAC	32	0.32	0.49	29	30

TEAM	OPASS	ORUNSR%	OINT%	OFUM%	DPASS	DRUNSR%	DINT%	PENRATE
ARI	4.4	32	3.5	1.7	5.8	57	4.7	0.42
ATL	7.2	37	2.5	0.5	6.7	55	3.7	0.21
BAL	6.4	39	1.9	0.7	6.2	56	2.4	0.51
BUF	5.9	46	3.5	2.2	6.1	53	2.2	0.45
CAR	7.0	44	2.4	1.4	5.8	57	2.0	0.43
CHI	5.6	35	3.5	1.1	5.4	61	4.2	0.41
CIN	6.2	41	3.1	1.3	5.7	57	2.5	0.43
CLE	5.7	40	3.2	0.7	6.2	58	2.9	0.47
DAL	6.9	38	2.6	1.3	6.8	59	1.4	0.44
DEN	7.3	46	2.0	1.6	5.4	59	2.9	0.39
DET	6.4	40	2.3	1.6	6.1	57	2.1	0.45
GB	6.6	39	1.5	0.9	5.6	57	3.3	0.45
HOU	6.6	41	2.1	0.5	5.8	59	2.7	0.41
IND	6.2	44	3.0	1.2	6.7	58	2.0	0.39
JAC	5.4	37	2.6	1.3	6.9	54	2.3	0.47
KC	5.4	42	4.4	2.2	7.0	59	1.6	0.38
MIA	6.0	41	2.6	1.6	6.1	61	1.8	0.36
MIN	5.2	41	2.6	1.4	5.9	58	1.7	0.37
NE	7.0	47	1.5	0.8	7.0	55	3.4	0.38
NO	7.1	41	2.9	0.6	7.4	56	2.5	0.42
NYG	6.7	42	2.9	0.9	7.3	53	4.0	0.31
NYJ	5.3	42	3.9	2.2	5.6	56	2.4	0.34
OAK	6.3	34	2.5	1.4	6.8	60	2.2	0.45
PHI	5.7	46	2.4	2.8	6.6	57	1.7	0.39
PIT	6.3	34	2.5	2.1	5.3	58	1.8	0.47
SD	5.7	37	2.9	1.5	6.1	58	2.4	0.39
SF	6.8	48	2.0	1.0	5.3	63	2.4	0.50
SEA	6.8	45	2.6	1.0	5.4	53	3.3	0.44
STL	6.0	42	2.5	1.1	5.9	58	3.2	0.46
TB	6.8	41	3.0	0.9	7.5	63	3.1	0.42
TEN	5.7	38	3.0	1.7	6.7	57	3.1	0.42
WAS	7.3	47	1.9	0.8	6.9	55	3.0	0.51
Avg	6.2	41	2.7	1.3	6.2	57	2.7	0.42