Brian Burke is back on the show to break down his latest work. He explains the details of the updated win probability formula and the story behind the brand new New York Times 4th Down Bot. Dave and Brian also discuss his latest post analyzing "streakiness" and how it can measure momentum.
They then dive into the wildly entertaining week 14 slate of games, beginning with a look at Keith Goldner's intentional touchdown post and a review of the best (Matt Prater) and worst (Philadelphia/Detroit) of the week 14 kicking game. Brian lays out the interesting math behind the Alabama/Auburn missed field goal return, and how the analysis behind it presents some tricky challenges. The show ends with a look at late season winter weather, and how it may affect teams as they prepare to battle for the chance to play outdoors in this year's New York Superbowl.
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Podcast Episode 12 - Brian Burke
published on 12/12/2013
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FWIW, Frank Gore's big run was to Seattle's 18 with 3:37 left, and the 49ers converted a set of downs to make it first and goal from the 7, which is the reason that Seattle had no timeouts left. (On the topic of forcing the touchdown, as I mentioned last year, I think Seattle should have gone for the intentional foul at that time to make it first and goal from the 9 with 3:37 and two Seattle timeouts left.)
You're correct. The intentional foul strategy would work too, as long as the clock is > 1 min to play.
How about a narrower set of goalposts or a kicking target that has a top bar? Maybe those restore the balance Brian is talking about in minute 38...
just an idea,
Tyson