Season Win Projections Week 3

Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. Projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (Adj GWP). Total wins account for current and projected wins. Methodology can be found here.

TEAM	GWP	Opp GWP	Adj GWP	Tot. Wins
AFC E
NE	0.97	0.17	0.80	14
MIA	0.37	0.58	0.41	5
BUF	0.08	0.94	0.30	4
NYJ	0.23	0.56	0.26	4
AFC N
PIT	0.90	0.22	0.77	13
CIN	0.52	0.38	0.46	7
BAL	0.34	0.43	0.30	6
CLE	0.19	0.55	0.22	4
AFC S
IND	0.91	0.39	0.85	15
JAX	0.63	0.60	0.68	11
TEN	0.61	0.52	0.62	10
HOU	0.54	0.61	0.59	10
AFC W
DEN	0.94	0.31	0.85	13
KC	0.46	0.38	0.40	6
SD	0.20	0.56	0.23	4
OAK	0.23	0.49	0.22	4
NFC E
DAL	0.91	0.28	0.80	14
PHI	0.80	0.51	0.80	12
WAS	0.60	0.50	0.60	10
NYG	0.34	0.70	0.44	6
NFC N
GB	0.59	0.44	0.57	10
MIN	0.49	0.35	0.41	6
DET	0.34	0.50	0.35	6
CHI	0.13	0.52	0.14	2
NFC S
TB	0.85	0.28	0.74	12
CAR	0.47	0.33	0.38	7
ATL	0.26	0.53	0.28	3
NO	0.03	0.79	0.18	2
NFC W
SEA	0.61	0.63	0.68	11
ARI	0.53	0.45	0.51	8
SF	0.40	0.54	0.42	7
STL	0.20	0.57	0.23	3

For now, the projections don't account for future strength of schedule. For example, notice how strong the AFC S appears. Obviously, they have to play each other frequently, so it would be very rare for a division to win so many games. At this point so early in the season, you should pay most attention to the relative ranking of each team rather than the projected win total.