Here is a handy comparison of the efficiency stats for the current playoff teams. The past couple years, I found myself referring to this chart myself many times throughout the playoffs to get a feel for how teams might match up.
O Pass, D Run, etc. is in yards per attempt. O Int, and D Int are the percent of pass attempts resulting in an interception. O Fum Rate is fumbles per offensive run play (all fumbles, not just fumbles lost). Pen rate is penalty yards per all plays. These are the stats most predictive of game outcomes.
Click on the table headers to sort.
| TEAM | OPASS | ORUN | OINT% | OFUM% | DPASS | DRUN | DINT% | PENRATE |
 ARI | 6.6 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 0.42 |
 BAL | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 0.56 |
 CIN | 6.0 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 0.44 |
 DAL | 7.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.43 |
 GB | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 0.55 |
 IND | 7.6 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 0.27 |
 MIN | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.38 |
 NE | 7.4 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 0.36 |
 NO | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 0.39 |
 NYJ | 5.7 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.35 |
 PHI | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 0.47 |
 SD | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.30 |
| NFL Avg | 6.2 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.39 |
Cool great stuff. SD should be bolded for OPASS. I can't sort in Firefox.
I can't sort in IE.
i can sort in chrome
Sort works for me in Firefox. I'm on a Mac though - not sure if that matters.
I'm on a pc with firefox and I can sort.
This is a simple way to see what matters in the NFL. 6/8 are above average in OPass and all 8 are above average in DPass, but only half of the teams are better than average in ORun and DRun.
Jets are the only playoff team below average in both OPASS and OINT%. Defense MUST carry them again tomorrow. Shouldn't be too tough to stop the Bengals. + turnover margin alone wins the game outright for the Jets.
Speaking of turnover margin, just watch Sanchise get picked off left and right. Bengals cornerback duo Joseph and Hall will have a field day with the rookie QB.
Hey Brian, any thought on the Eagles being a big play team this season? Are they really more reliant on the "big play" than any other team in the NFL or the playoffs? How often do they get a big play?
Wondering because I'm trying to figure out if they are a high variance team, and thus what their best strategy is for tomorrow and the rest of the playoffs.
Ok, so it seems to me Baltimore is better than New England in several of these categories; NE seems to have major advantages in pass efficiency and penalties. Why did the 5th Down forecast give New England a 70% chance of victory? Are other stats factored into this or is that entirely due to home field advantage?
Part of it is due to HFA, but much of it has to do with the weights of each stat. The stats in which NE is superior are more predictive of success than the stats in which BAL is superior.
Offensive pass efficiency and offensive interception rate are particularly predictive.
James-That's a good question, but I don't think I'll have the time to look into it. They sure seem like a big play team to me. I remember I was on the road with a friend from work who's a Redskin fan when PHI played WAS on Monday Night. Man, there were 2 or 3 big TD plays and the game was over before the 1st quarter ended.
PS Thanks for catching the error on bolding NO over SD for opass.
include standard deviation
I keep hearing how hard it is to beat a team a 2nd and 3rd time in the same season. Does anyone have the statistics for 2nd and 3rd matchups?
Do you have comparisions by offensive and defensive Win Probability Added (like you published for teams 2000-2008)?
You got me thinking in those terms...
Anon-I believe PFR did a study on that a while back showing that basically its a farce that it is harder to beat a team a 3rd straight time. Its a fallacy. The truth is its hard to beat a time 3 times in a season, but beating them the 3rd time is no harder or easier than the 1st or 2nd time.
basically its a farce that it is harder to beat a team a 3rd straight time. Its a fallacy.
Right. Specifically, the "gambler's fallacy", if a coin toss has come up heads four times in a row then it is more likely to come up tails next time. The odds are independently applied with each toss -- and each game.
Does O Pass include yards gained by penalty? What about plays marked nullified by penalty ("No Play")?
Johnny K
Anonymous, a team that's beaten another twice in the same season is 13-7 in the third matchup (after the Cowboys game yesterday).
I'm not sure this is the right place to post this question, but since this is the current thread...
At the end of the BAL-NE game, the WP for BAL takes a little dip down to 78% about a minute before the end of the game. It's rather difficult to imagine that the WP actually did decrease that much for any reason.
Any idea what that could be?
That happens pretty often. There are frequent errors by the data feed used to produce the WP graphs that I have no control over. You usually don't notice them on sites like Yahoo or nfl.com or sportsline, etc. because it only lasts a few seconds and they aren't recorded all game long. It should be fixed when the official NFL gamebook comes out in a few minutes.
So do we see an onside kick in the 3rd quarter in the playoffs even as recently as a couple of years ago? Then packers go for it on 4th at midfield. They certainly appear to be playing to win...the smart and gutsy way.
The Pack played that game perfectly as far as strategy goes in my opinion. Remember this is the same team that lost to Pitt because of an unexpected onside kick a few weeks ago.
On paper it looks like Arizona isn't very good - but something tells me they are better than they look on paper. I realize guts have no role in oddsmaking. Is there something quantitative that I'm missing that explains Arizona's seemingly good offense but run of the mill offensive statistics?
I agree. I think there is something that underestimates them, this year and last. They coasted for a long time into the playoffs. The NFC West is so weak it really brings down their strength of schedule.
I wrote on this site in mid December - your system like DVOA over-rated NFC East and NFC West Teams.
Do you honestly believe that the NYG, Dall and Phil are better than Minn?
Yes. I'm not being cute. I do. Do you believe the 2007 Giants were better than all the teams they beat on the way to the championship?
that's really bizarre thinking to me. The NFC East was 4-12 and negative 150+ pts when they played teams ranked in the top 15 by Football Outsiders (not counting games against themselves).
That isn't a one game sample - that's 16 games against decent teams.
Did I think the 2007 Giants were better than all the teams they beat...no. I didn't think they were much worse. I did bet on them to beat cover against NE because I thought people were missing what seemed obvious as the season wore on. NE wasn't physically beating up on teams any more. But more to the point they didn't beat any of those teams 34-3 or 44-7. They basically won 3 tossup games in a row.
I get what you are trying to do here. But if the NFC East teams were really as good as you have them ranked there is almost no chance they would go 4-12 and negative 150+ pts against other decent teams.