The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.
Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.
GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.
Click on the table headers to sort.
RANK | TEAM | LAST WK | GWP | Opp GWP | O RANK | D RANK |
1 | SD | 1 | 0.81 | 0.42 | 1 | 8 |
2 | PIT | 3 | 0.80 | 0.54 | 4 | 2 |
3 | NYG | 2 | 0.79 | 0.46 | 2 | 3 |
4 | TEN | 4 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 5 | 1 |
5 | GB | 7 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 6 | 10 |
6 | PHI | 10 | 0.65 | 0.49 | 7 | 4 |
7 | KC | 6 | 0.61 | 0.49 | 20 | 6 |
8 | IND | 5 | 0.61 | 0.54 | 13 | 12 |
9 | MIA | 8 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 19 | 15 |
10 | BAL | 13 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 16 | 13 |
11 | NYJ | 12 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 21 | 7 |
12 | NO | 18 | 0.56 | 0.42 | 14 | 11 |
13 | HOU | 9 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 3 | 28 |
14 | MIN | 15 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 15 | 17 |
15 | CHI | 14 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 27 | 9 |
16 | NE | 11 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 11 | 25 |
17 | CLE | 22 | 0.51 | 0.55 | 17 | 18 |
18 | WAS | 17 | 0.48 | 0.51 | 22 | 19 |
19 | CIN | 20 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 25 | 20 |
20 | ATL | 19 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 10 | 27 |
21 | DAL | 16 | 0.45 | 0.58 | 9 | 26 |
22 | OAK | 21 | 0.41 | 0.46 | 18 | 14 |
23 | TB | 27 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 12 | 30 |
24 | DEN | 23 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 8 | 31 |
25 | SF | 24 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 23 | 22 |
26 | DET | 25 | 0.35 | 0.57 | 24 | 21 |
27 | BUF | 28 | 0.34 | 0.55 | 28 | 29 |
28 | JAC | 26 | 0.30 | 0.57 | 26 | 32 |
29 | STL | 30 | 0.29 | 0.39 | 30 | 16 |
30 | CAR | 29 | 0.28 | 0.49 | 32 | 5 |
31 | SEA | 31 | 0.22 | 0.47 | 29 | 23 |
32 | ARI | 32 | 0.20 | 0.46 | 31 | 24 |
Below are each team's efficiency stats.
TEAM | OPASS | ORUN | OINT% | OFUM% | DPASS | DRUN | DINT% | PENRATE |
ARI | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 0.42 |
ATL | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 0.37 |
BAL | 6.6 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.38 |
BUF | 5.3 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 0.4 | 0.32 |
CAR | 4.3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 0.39 |
CHI | 5.7 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.35 |
CIN | 6.0 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 0.36 |
CLE | 6.2 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 0.40 |
DAL | 6.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.52 |
DEN | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.52 |
DET | 5.6 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 0.56 |
GB | 6.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 0.37 |
HOU | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.33 |
IND | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.36 |
JAC | 5.9 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 0.37 |
KC | 6.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.40 |
MIA | 6.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.24 |
MIN | 6.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.45 |
NE | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 0.36 |
NO | 6.4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.42 |
NYG | 7.0 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 0.43 |
NYJ | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.56 |
OAK | 6.0 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.69 |
PHI | 6.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 0.63 |
PIT | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 0.36 |
SD | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 0.41 |
SF | 6.0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 0.56 |
SEA | 5.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.47 |
STL | 5.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.44 |
TB | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 0.40 |
TEN | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.55 |
WAS | 6.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.38 |
Avg | 6.2 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.43 |
Good stuff. For some reason the headers only sort Descending when I click on them. I can't figure out how to make them Ascending.
That happens to me too, but only on Firefox on my work computer. On all my other computers, it works normally.
...Touché Mr Burke...
Isn't there any easy way to get to your weekly Win Probabilities from this chart? Like you take the GWP's for each team and make an adjustment for home field advantage.
If team A were at home, would it be:
Team A Win Chances = (GWPa*(.57/.50)) / (GWPa*(.57/.50)+GWPb*(.43/.50))
Never mind. I looked into it and it's a bit more complicated.
David-Yes, and it's not too hard. Do a search for 'how the model works' in the site's search box above. That post should tell explain.
49ers at #25 is the best in the NFC West. The other 3 West teams make up 3 of the bottom 4 teams in the overall efficiency chart.
One of these teams will make the playoffs and likely host a game against a superior NFC East wild card team, such as PHI or NYG. LOL.
Brian,
I can imagine that the problem with yards per attempt is that some teams may get a 3 and out repeatedly, others might march halfway up the field and then punt repeatedly, and both still have 0 points, but the one which got halfway up the field will have a much higher efficiency.
Have u ever thought of utilizing other variables which may account for such discrepancies. For example, I would think the number of punts or 4th downs per possesion (minus possessions ending in turnovers and end of halves)could be helpful. I was just curious about whether or not you have ever looked into the statistical significance of these stats.
Dave-Sorting should be working now.
Thanks Brian, sorting is working great.
Also- I tried to make a spreadsheet that replicates your Game Probabilities calculations based on your explanation here: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/how-model-works-detailed-example.html
Although most of my answers are close to your published numbers on the Fifth Down, none of them are exact and I was wondering if you've changed the coefficients in your formula or if there is something else going on. The most egregious example is NYJ vs CLE, I kept getting NYJ as a 61%/39% favorite while you had CLE as a 53% favorite.
Here are my calcs:
CLE Logit = 0.46*6.2+0.25*4.2+-19.4*0.035+-19.4*0.018+-0.62*6.7+-0.25*3.9+-1.53*0.4 = -2.8672
NYJ Logit = 0.46*6+0.25*4.7+-19.4*0.02+-19.4*0.017+-0.62*5.8+-0.25*3.3+-1.53*0.56 = -2.0606
CLE GWP = e^(-.36+.72-2.8672+2.0606)/(1+e^(-.36+.72-2.8672+2.0606)) = 39%
NYJ GWP e^(-.36-2.0606+2.8672)/(1+e^(-.36-2.0606+2.8672)) = 61%