Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I put blame where blame is due for the prediction model's under-performing season...squarely on the shoulders of Norv Turner.
Game Probabilities - Week 17
published on 12/30/2010
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Brian,
it seems you don't post the actual results of the model's accuracy for this year or past years. any reason for that?
A simple "did the percentage favorite win" measure is not really meaningful in evaluating a model that's producing percentage chances. I would be interested in seeing a root mean square error for this prediction model, though.
yeah RMSE is surely better. but it would be good to see something.