Roundup 12/18/10

Matt Ryan for MVP. WPA agrees.

Is rushing the key to beating the Patriots?

Hidden gems drive the Patriots' success in 2010.

Worst late-season collapses.

PFR continues to add features.

Down by 2 scores late. Kick first and save time for later?

Blitzology is back.

Best punting day of the season.

How are the Jaguars winning this year?

True talent vs. observed talent at the replacement level in MLB.

What is a Quality Control coach? Helmet-knock: PFR

Quantitative analysis is taking over everything. (English majors need math too.)

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6 Responses to “Roundup 12/18/10”

  1. Chris says:

    C'mon Brian, just because Harvard Sports Analysis posts something doesn't mean you have to post it. I read that this week, and almost posted a link in the comments to one of your posts to complain about it. That is one of the more poorly conducted "studies" I've read in a long time. The author clearly goes in without an open mind and finds exactly what he was expecting to find as a result. I won't go into specifics, but for anyone else who reads it, watch the poor methodology used to support his "conclusion". (At points I believe the author admits this is probably not the best way to study this, but if that's the case, why publish the article in the first place.)

  2. ubrab says:

    "Is rushing the key to beating the Patriots?"
    "The key also seems to lie with sticking with the run. In those two losses, Patriots’ opponents averaged 38 rushes a game, to the tune of 4.8 yards a carry. In the 10 wins, the Patriots faced only 24.5 rush attempts a game, allowing 4.1 yards a carry.

    I seriously expect better links than this one... Correlation/Causation all that...

  3. Ian Simcox says:

    Ahh yes, the old "teams that rush more, win more - therefore teams should rush more often".

    For an example in how much the NFL is a passing league, from 2002 to 2009, Houston won 49 games averaging 3.57 yards per rush attempt, and lost 79 games averaging 4.05 Y/Att.

    Yes, they were gaining fewer yards per rush but they won. On the passing side, it was 7.19 Y/Att in wins v 5.35 in losses.

    It can't be said often enough, it's the winning that leads to the running, not the other way round.

  4. Jim Glass says:

    Two of those linked posts talk about how miserable the O performance was in the Jets-Mia game last week. While suffering through it I decided to see if Jets fans had ever endured a worse performance by both Os combined, so I searched for games where the QBs hit less than 39%, 28% (Sanchez, Henne). I found a 1974 Jets-Bills game where the QBs (Namath, Ferguson) had a combined passing rating of ... 0 (zero). On a nice, clear 64-degree day. But OJ & Co rushed for 200+ yards, so somebody did some things right, that game was too good. Limiting the combined yards to the 411 of last week I had to go back to another classic Jets-Fins game in 1966.

    These new computer data bases are great! Without them all these great moments in history would be forgotten forever.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Looks like Prisco wrote that himself. Just kidding.

    I am surprised Brian linked to that article without at least saying: "... they couldn´t be more wrong..."

    I would predict Shutout-Wins for NE, every time some coach would follow that ridicoulous approach. Even if JAX is the opponent.

    Cheers, Karl

  6. Jason Lisk says:

    Chris, I concur. I got halfway through that Harvard Sports Analysis piece, and just had to stop. The one that finally did me in was the Tampa game where they scored a touchdown down by 10, kicked deep, and then Denver gained multiple first downs to end the game. The author concludes that is a case that shows Tampa should have taken a field goal as soon as they could, instead of scoring the touchdown before the kickoff.

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