Redskins in the Red Zone

The Redskins were inside the 20 only 3 times against Miami.  Out of those 3 trips, they converted 2 field goals and turned the ball over on an interception.  The first red zone trip came late in the 1st quarter after a Matt Moore interception set Rex Grossman up with a 1st-and-goal from the 5.  Using our Markov model, we look at the quick deflation of the drive:

The Skins handed the ball to Ryan Torain 3 straight times, the 3rd of which was a touchdown nullified by a holding penalty - resulting in close to a 30% drop in TD probability.  A 2-yard completion to Roy Helu on 3rd-and-goal from the 10 almost guaranteed a Graham Gano field goal.

Two quarters later, the Redskins had yet to enter the red zone for a 2nd time.  But, another Dolphins' mistake - this time a Matt Moore fumble - set up Rex Grossman on the Miami 24. Grossman converted on his first 3rd down of the drive (play 4), putting Washington's chances of a TD over 50% for the only time on the drive. 

 A 6-yard completion to Fred Davis and an incompletion later, Graham Gano found himself trotting out for another short field goal attempt.

Later, down 4 in the 4th quarter, Karlos Dansby intercepted Grossman on yet another 1st-and-goal from the 10.

Give some credit to the Miami defense for holding Rex Grossman in check.  That being said, an NFL-caliber offense should not be held out of the end zone on three drives featuring 1st downs on or inside the 10-yardline.   

Keith Goldner is the creator of Drive-By Football, and Chief Analyst at - The leading fantasy sports analytics platform.  Follow him on twitter @drivebyfootball or check out numberFire on Facebook

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2 Responses to “Redskins in the Red Zone”

  1. Jonathan says:

    "Two quarters later, the Redskins had yet to enter the red zone for a 2nd time."

    I initially read that as "two years later, the Redskins had yet to enter the red zone."

  2. Anonymous says:

    That Jets at Broncos game was so much better than what I expected. For over 3 and a half quarters I was right, and then... WOW. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not on the Tebow bandwagon by any means, but that kid showed heart last night. I caught the game on NFL Network, channel 154 on DISH Network, and again, what a game. I work at DISH and they have the TVs on all day long, every news channel is all about Tebow today for some reason. It's too bad people out of the area and no NFL Network couldn't get the game!

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