Don't Pay Fortay!

Well, actually, do pay him, just don't pay him the kind of guaranteed money he's looking for. On one hand, Forte is having a career season as the epicenter of the Bears offense. On the other hand, he’ll be a 26-year old running back next season.

CJ2k, or CJ0.7k as he might be better known after this season, has highlighted the folly of handing over 10% of a team’s cap space to single RB. That’s just too many eggs in one basket for a position that simply does not drive wins and losses except in rare instances.

Forte is 2nd so far this year in WPA/G, 6th in EPA per play, and 18th in SR. He’s averaging 5.4 YPC, which ties for 6th in the league for qualifying RBs. We all agree that’s really good. The question is whether the Bears are better off locking him up for 6 years and $20 million guaranteed or spending that money elsewhere.

We don’t need to look at Chris Johnson or DeAngelo Williams to see the danger of giving huge guaranteed contracts to RBs. We only have to look at Forte himself. As we’ve seen with several RBs, they can go from thermonuclear hot one year to cold as a fish the next, even without injuries or switching teams, and Forte is no exception.


YearWPAEPAWPA/GEPA/PSR(%)YPCRecRecYds
20080.829.20.050.0241.13.963477
2009-1.24-30.6-0.08-0.0934.13.653446
20100.15-7.40.01-0.0239.34.464691
20110.7022.00.100.1244.75.438419
Totals0.43-6.70.01-0.0139.34.22182033

Forte went from one of the top performing RBs in 2008 to one of the worst in 2009. He then had a mediocre year in 2010, the year CHI made it to the NFC Championship Game. And now he’s back on top in 2011. Forte already had a Chris-Johnson-in-2011-like season in ’09, and there’s no reason he won’t do it again. In ’09, Forte gained 905 yards on 252 carries for a 3.6 YPC. He fumbled 6 times. He was dead last in qualifying RBs (59th) in total WPA with -1.24 and was second to last in total EPA.

I know what you’re saying. The team around him was bad. His offensive line played awful. They didn’t “use him right.” He had some bad fumble luck. But that’s exactly my point. RB performance is highly variable and greatly dependent on offensive lines.

In the NFL, pay is only logical as an inducement to future expected performance, not as a reward for past accomplishments. His future performance is hard to predict mostly because it’s so dependent on the team around him (which is my point). But if we look at his career average as an indication, he averages 0.01 WPA/G and -0.01 EPA/P with a 39% SR. In the context of 2011, those numbers would be 27th in WPA/G, 34th in EPA/P, and 33rd in SR. His career SR and YPC numbers are exactly league-average. Is that worth $20 million guaranteed?

In fairness, Adrian Peterson’s career averages would put him in similar company, and Chris Johnson’s career numbers would put him solidly in the bottom half of the league.

The Bears would be much better off franchise-tagging Forte over the next two seasons and then moving on with a younger, cheaper back. That might seem unfair, but Forte still pockets millions of dollars, and with any luck will make a few million more down the road. Some might argue that there is value in "keeping him happy," but I'm not so sure there is an reliable link between large guaranteed contracts and future performance. Just ask the Titans.

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7 Responses to “Don't Pay Fortay!”

  1. Anonymous says:

    2 years of Franchise tags would be about 17M. Considering how poor Angelo is at getting RBs, he should keep him.

  2. Anonymous says:

    On paper, Brian's suggestion is a no-brainer but there is a bit more to the story here. There is no way that Forte just shows up next season and allows the Bears to franchise him in 2012 and then again in 2013. He will almost certainly hold out and at that point you have a situation where the Bears' two best players (Forte and Briggs)are both unhappy and feeling underpaid. Maybe this shouldn't factor into the calculus but the Bears will have to decide how to handle what is quite likely to be a protracted holdout to start 2012. Jason

  3. Anonymous says:

    NFL teams have incentive to burn out their good RBs. They get good play now at little pay, and then cut the RB later when his skills decline. But his skills declined partially due to the high usage that the team put him in. It is a tough situation for good RBs. Be a good team player and get your body get beat to pieces, and you get nothing in the future. Or be selfish, hold yourself out with nagging injuries from time to time, and you'll have a longer career that may net more money. Is Ricky Williams the smartest RB of all?

  4. Pete says:

    I don't know who is being more stupid: the Bears for offering a huge $14 million in guaranteed money, or Forte for not taking it. Matt, if you're out there, put your pride/agent aside and take the money. If you take it, you will never have to work another job. Ask yourself where Curtis Enis is right now. When you come to your senses and take the deal, no need to thank me, although sending me 0.1% of guaranteed money would be a nice gesture.

  5. Dan says:

    > There is no way that Forte just shows up next season and allows the Bears to franchise him in 2012 and then again in 2013. He will almost certainly hold out and at that point you have a situation where the Bears' two best players (Forte and Briggs)are both unhappy and feeling underpaid.

    Bully for them.

    They can hold out from training camp and bitch and moan to local sports radio all they want.

    When you get down to the bottom line, Forte still will have been franchised and Briggs will still be under contract to the Bears through 2013. If these guys want to be paid millions of dollars to play in the NFL in 2012, they'll have to do so for the Bears on the Bears' terms. There's no other choice.

    Sucks for them, but such is life as a player in the NFL, where the owners have all the leverage.

  6. Misfit says:

    Excellent article. God I love this site. :)

  7. Tony says:

    "We only have to look at Forte himself. As we’ve seen with several RBs, they can go from thermonuclear hot one year to cold as a fish the next, even without injuries...Forte went from one of the top performing RBs in 2008 to one of the worst in 2009"

    Nope. Forte was injured through all or almost all of 2009 but played through it.

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