Roundup 11/5/11

"The lack of big plays could be a result of limited work after contact. [Chris]  Johnson is averaging 1.3 yards per rush after contact this season."

What can Woody the Woodpecker teach us about football head injuries?

Most and least penalized teams through week 8.

There's in-game win probability, and then there's World Series win probability. Very cool analysis by Jack Moore. Here is WS-WPA for batters.

PFR Blog takes a knee. It's an apt metaphor because it's what you do after you've sealed a win. I'd like to thank Doug Drinen and his crew for the inspiration and education they've provided me and the rest of the stat enthusiast community. Doug was part of the re-birth of football analytics, long before ANS or Football Outsiders, largely motivated by fantasy football at the beginning of the last decade. Chase Stuart has landed at Smart Football and Fifth Down, and JKL is still at Big Lead.

KC and the old counter trey.

One of the interesting things ESPN can do with it's new TQBR stat is to analyze the inputs. For example, swapping Tom Brady's pass pro with Jay Cutler's pass pro would cost NE 19 net points. That would cost NE at least one win, probably two, and maybe three.
Simulating an NFL season.

Jason is absolutely right about avoiding shutouts. Here in DC Shanahan suffered his first shutout last weekend. He passed up an opportunity for a late FG in favor of a 4th attempt near the goal line. Good for him. Coaches with long histories of not being shut out indicate they either always had good offenses or they're too self-conscious about being shutout.

The Ravens defense is getting to QBs.

Buzz makes the case that Peyton Manning was essential to the Colts' success on defense.

It's true that Alex Smith is playing better than we'd expect this season, but as Carl Bialik points out, it's largely due to interception luck. Another factor is that he's taking more sacks, which might be a good thing depending on the game situation. My hunch is that his interception rate will regress and we'll see more of the old Alex Smith for the rest of the year.

Adrian Peterson faces the most 8-man fronts of any RB in the league.

Can Philip Rivers and the Chargers 'flip the switch' yet again in 2011?

Asymmetry in the NBA negotiations.