Playoff Probabilities: Week 15

Another crazy weekend in the NFL last week, as wins by both the Broncos and Giants resulted in huge swings in the playoff probabilities. As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season 5,000 times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

While the Cowboys' overall probability dropped by 30 points following their loss to the Giants, chances are that their ultimate playoff fate won't be decided until the teams meet again in Week 17. For the Giants to clinch the division before then, they'd have to win both of their games and Dallas would have to lose to Philadelphia (14% probability). For Dallas to clinch before then, they'd have to win their next two games while the Giants lose both of theirs (5% probability). In total, there is a four in five chance that the NFC East will be decided the final week of the season. Mark your calendars.

Elsewhere in the NFC, Green Bay has the #1 seed all but locked up, and the eventual winner of the East will almost surely get the #4 seed, leaving San Francisco and New Orleans to fight over which team gets the #2 seed and the accompanying first-round bye.

The outcome of that race is no small deal. Especially for a weaker team like the 49ers, the fewer games you play means the greater chance that randomness will let you sneak past a stronger opponent. If they enter the playoffs as the #2 seed, for example, the 49ers would have a 34% probability of making it to the NFC Championship game. That isn't very high, considering all they would need to do is win one game at home, but as the #3 seed, this probability drops to just 9%. Which brings us to this week's high leverage games:

High Leverage Games of the Week

Pittsburgh at San Francisco | Monday, December 19 | 8:30 pm ET

Playoff Prob.	SF Win	PIT Win
PIT	>99	100
SF	100	100

The leverage of this game has nothing to do with the teams' overall playoff probabilities (clearly) and everything to do with their seeding. Pittsburgh is still neck-and-neck with Baltimore for the AFC North and both are projected to finish the season strong. Though Baltimore is expected to perform slightly worse than the Steelers, the Ravens own the tiebreaker, meaning the Steelers will have to win the division outright. If they lose this game, their chances of doing so drop to 23%.

As discussed, securing a first-round bye is especially important for the 49ers, but their loss last week to the Cardinals dropped their chances of doing so a whopping 40 percentage points to 28%. An upset win here would raise that number back up to 52%.

Detroit at Oakland | Sunday, December 18 | 4:05 pm ET

Playoff Prob.	OAK Win	DET Win
DET	61	91
OAK	47	22

Oakland needs to win to keep pace with the unstoppable force that is Tim Tebow. Already a game behind the Broncos, a loss to Detroit would put Oakland in a fairly large hole. Even if the Raiders followed up by winning both of their final two games, they would still have just a 25% probability of winning the West. For Detroit, on the other hand, a loss would give the rest of the NFC an opportunity to gain ground in the wild card race, boosting the probabilities of the Bears, Cardinals, and Seahawks to 25, 10, and 6%, respectively.

New York Jets at Philadelphia | Sunday, December 18 | 4:15 pm ET

Playoff Prob.	PHI Win	NYJ Win
NYJ	28	66
PHI	4	0

The Jets have been right on the cusp all season, with a playoff probability that has neither risen higher than 50% nor fallen lower than 20. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have the #5-seed wild card spot more or less locked up, and the Jets' chances of overtaking the Patriots are minuscule (having lost to NE twice), so their hopes rest on keeping hold of the final wild card spot in the AFC.

The competition: Cincinnati, Tennessee, and the 2nd place team in the AFC West. While no one of these teams presents a formidable challenge, as a whole, there is a 60% chance that one of the three will emerge to knock the Jets out of position. The model sees the game against the Eagles as the most difficult game remaining on the Jets' schedule, so if they win here, their probability of fending off said competition increases to 66%.

For the Eagles (and their fans), the nightmare of the 2011 season is almost over, and a loss here would make it official (there will be no 7-9 playoff teams this year). If the Eagles run the table, however, there's a 14% probability that they could make the postseason at 8-8.

News & Notes

• With back-to-back wins against the 49ers and Cowboys, could Arizona be making a run at the playoffs after starting the season 1-6? Their remaining schedule is Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Seattle—beat all three, and there's a 42% probability the Cardinals grab a wild card spot.
• Undefeated season watch: Probability of the Packers going undefeated is up to 47%, including a 10% probability to close out with a Super Bowl win.

The probabilities below are the result of simulating the season 50,000 times using the game-win probabilities from the team efficiency model. They may not add up to 100 (in percent form) due to rounding. Enjoy.

AFC EAST
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NE	10-3	12.2	>99	0	0	0
NYJ	8-5	9.3	0	>99	0	0
BUF	5-8	6.6	0	0	75	25
MIA	4-9	5.1	0	0	25	75
AFC NORTH
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
PIT	10-3	12.4	52	48	0	0
BAL	10-3	11.9	48	52	0	0
CIN	7-6	8.8	0	0	100	0
CLE	4-9	4.7	0	0	0	100
AFC SOUTH
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
HOU	10-3	12.6	100	0	0	0
TEN	7-6	8.5	0	98	2	0
JAC	4-9	5.2	0	2	98	0
IND	0-13	0.8	0	0	0	100
AFC WEST
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
DEN	8-5	9.4	79	20	1	0
OAK	7-6	8.7	19	56	21	4
SD	6-7	7.2	1	22	60	17
KC	5-8	5.9	1	2	18	79
NFC EAST
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NYG	7-6	8.9	63	30	7	0
DAL	7-6	8.7	34	50	16	0
PHI	5-8	6.8	3	20	71	7
WAS	4-9	5.2	0	1	6	93
NFC NORTH
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
GB	13-0	15.3	100	0	0	0
DET	8-5	9.4	0	85	15	0
CHI	7-6	8.5	0	15	85	0
MIN	2-11	3.0	0	0	0	100
NFC SOUTH
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NO	10-3	12.2	96	4	0	0
ATL	8-5	9.9	4	96	0	0
CAR	4-9	5.0	0	0	68	32
TB	4-9	4.8	0	0	32	68
NFC WEST
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
SF	10-3	11.4	100	0	0	0
ARI	6-7	7.7	0	56	44	0
SEA	6-7	7.1	0	44	56	0
STL	2-11	2.9	0	0	0	100

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
HOU	31	40	28	0	0	0	100
NE	27	26	44	4	0	0	>99
PIT	15	21	16	0	48	0	>99
DEN	0	0	4	75	0	4	83
BAL	27	13	8	0	51	1	>99
NYJ	0	0	0	0	0	41	42
OAK	0	0	0	19	0	14	34
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	20	20
TEN	0	0	0	0	0	18	18
SD	0	0	0	1	0	2	3
KC	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BUF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
JAC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
IND	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
GB	>99	0	0	0	0	0	100
NO	0	61	35	0	4	0	100
SF	0	38	59	2	0	0	100
NYG	0	0	0	63	0	1	64
ATL	0	0	3	0	67	17	88
DET	0	0	0	0	20	56	76
DAL	0	0	2	32	1	3	38
CHI	0	0	0	0	7	14	21
ARI	0	0	0	0	1	6	7
SEA	0	0	0	0	1	3	4
PHI	0	0	0	3	0	0	3
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
WAS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CAR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

AFC Percent Probability to Advance
Team	Division Round	Conference Game	Super Bowl	Sup Bowl Champion
HOU	95	64	39	23
PIT	85	50	27	16
NE	87	42	19	9
BAL	78	34	14	6
DEN	24	4	1	0
NYJ	11	3	1	0
OAK	11	2	0	0
CIN	5	1	0	0
TEN	4	1	0	0
SD	1	0	0	0
KC	0	0	0	0
BUF	0	0	0	0
MIA	0	0	0	0
CLE	0	0	0	0
IND	0	0	0	0
JAC	0	0	0	0

NFC Percent Probability to Advance
Team	Division Round	Conference Game	Super Bowl	Sup Bowl Champion
GB	100	72	52	26
NO	86	55	23	10
NYG	42	16	7	3
SF	71	27	7	2
DET	34	10	4	1
ATL	32	9	3	1
DAL	24	8	3	1
CHI	7	2	1	0
PHI	2	1	0	0
ARI	2	0	0	0
SEA	1	0	0	0
WAS	0	0	0	0
MIN	0	0	0	0
CAR	0	0	0	0
TB	0	0	0	0
STL	0	0	0	0