Does your win probability calculator take into account 2 point conversions? If I put in the end of the GB/NYG game:
3:46 left. 1st and 10 from own 20. From NYG perspective:
-7 = .18 win probability -8 = .10 win probability -9 = .10 win probability
Surely there has to be a bigger difference between being down 8 and down 9 with under 4 minutes to go. Seems like it doesn't consider the possibility of an 8 point touchdown.
Welcome to the Advanced Football Analytics archive. This is where you can find over 1,500 ground-breaking articles full of the most innovative research and analysis of modern NFL football.
Interested in publishing your own football research, analysis, or stat-based commentary? Advanced NFL Stats Community is the site to share your thoughts and ideas. There's plenty of data available to get started. All submissions will be accepted and published. Check it out!
Support Military Families
If you enjoy Advanced Football Analytics, please consider a small donation to The Fisher House, a place where families of injured servicemen can stay while visiting their hospitalized heroes.
Surprised to see Tebow's EPA so low. Was his first half bad enough to drag down his second?
Lost fumble, 10 yard sack, a bunch of unsuccessful 3rd downs.
Does your win probability calculator take into account 2 point conversions? If I put in the end of the GB/NYG game:
3:46 left. 1st and 10 from own 20. From NYG perspective:
-7 = .18 win probability
-8 = .10 win probability
-9 = .10 win probability
Surely there has to be a bigger difference between being down 8 and down 9 with under 4 minutes to go. Seems like it doesn't consider the possibility of an 8 point touchdown.
I'll take a look at that. It is aware of the 2-pt conversion, but there are some strange wrinkles in the raw data that sometimes don't get ironed out.