Let's face it. The world of football analytics has changed greatly over the years since Advanced NFL Stats broke ground on its multi-million dollar research complex in 2006. These days, a small portion of analytics is being done outside of the paradise-like garden of forward-thinking that is ANS. I've been told that up to one, possibly two percent of football research is being done elsewhere. Hard to believe, but it's true.
That's where Advanced NFL Stats Community comes in. If you'd like to publish your own research, you are free to do so at ANS Community. We haven't seen a submission since last season, and loyal editor Ed Anthony hasn't had much to do over the past few months. (I'm beginning to rethink his guaranteed salary of $6.5 million...no, wait. That's Matt Flynn, not Ed. I only pay Ed like $80,000/yr, but I'm not worried because it's in Canadian pesos or whatever they have up there. So that's what, $50 bucks or something in actual money, right?)
I know there's a lot of research out there waiting for the bright lights of ANS Community. I must have sent data to and answered questions for over (honestly) 100 students, from high school students to PhD candidates to tenured professors. And there are lots of armchair statisticians out there like myself, with their own ideas about football stats. Every post at the Community site has been read by thousands of readers, and the very best will find their way onto ANS proper.
I was going through the posts at the Community site and I was surprised to see there are 133 posts over the 5-year life of ANS-C, a substantial amount--an amazing 200 articles per year! (Or about that. I'm not good with numbers.)
Some of the posts were a bit out-there, but some of them are real diamonds. A few of my favorites were Bryan Davies' explanation of why a team should always go for two when down 14 and Michael Beuoy's team rankings based on multiple simultaneous equations of point spreads. (You can always check Michael's up-to-date rankings at his site Inpredictable.com.) Longtime reader Adam Tarr put together this examination of QB YAC, which broke the site's record for TL;DR flame-war comments. I liked this one by 'Tunesmith' on the Kelly Criterion, a financial market concept. And here's Ed's own (puzzling) contribution on kicking or receiving to start the half.
Here are Ed's favorite posts through the years:
Are Punters getting better?
Favorite/Longshot Bias
Revisiting Big Wins Index
Peyton Manning Colts Defensive MVP?
Appreciating How the Old Ones Played
Luck Points (series)
Completing Short Passes in Playoffs
Comeback Kings
Dispatches from the Anti-League
Defence Wins Championships…(Someone should tell Canada it spells defense wrong. I would but I'm not sure they have Internet up there yet.)
So come for the quirky articles, but stay for the awful web design. (We've kept the ANS Classic styling, complete with Retina-Burning Blue and Chesapeake Retriever-Vomit Yellow.) Here is everything you need to know to contribute your research to the football analytics world.
A Plug for the Community Site
By
Brian Burke
published on 10/08/2013
in
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Do Jeff Clarke and Jim Glass still comment? They always had great input. I still keep rough track of team's Big Win Index throughout the season after reading those articles.
Brian - FYI, I submitted an article to Ed in the first week and never got a response. Didn't know if it just wasn't "up to par" or you guys weren't doing the site anymore. I used the email on the site; has it changed? Thanks.
Tom, pls resend and cc my address.
This is my first season of really watching and following the NFL and I'm really enjoying your site. I definately don't think I am ready for posting in the community yet...
James, thanks for the kind words.
I've got a couple more ideas to post up in the Community -- which I heartily recommend to all! -- but the real world keeps intruding on my time. Dang inconsiderate of it.
Here's a thought of the moment, though:
QBs do not win Super Bowls, teams win Super Bowls.
Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, 4-0 in Super Bowls, 0-9 in 2013.
I can't tell how many conversations I've heard on NYC sports radio here along the lines of...
"We *know* Eli is a Hall of Fame QB, he won two Super Bowls! You win two Super Bowls you are a HoF QB. And we *know* that, although yes, Peyton runs up bigger numbers in the regular season, Eli is the proven better clutch post-season player you want to win games if you want a championship.
"But ... if he continues with this 66 passer rating, 32nd-ranked season regular, should it affect how we evaluate him? How??"
And this is the experts talking. Not the fans. (Well, the fans too, of course.)