Browns vs. Titans for the AFC Wildcard

CLE and TEN are both 7-5 with 4 games remaining. With JAX currently playing well and sitting at 8-4, it looks like the final wildcard spot will go to either the Browns or Titans. BUF, at 6-6, still has an outside chance, but the clear favorite for the wildcard right now is CLE. NFL Forecast gives CLE about a 50/50 shot at the wildcard and TEN about a 33% chance.

CLE and TEN are mirror images of one another. CLE has one of the top ranked offenses but one of the worst defenses, while TEN has a very strong defense but weak offense. All things considered, and accounting for opponent strength, TEN ranks 14th in the league and CLE ranks 16th. Here is how each team's stats break down:

Team	O Pass	O Run	O Int Rate	O Fum	D Pass	D Run	D Int Rate	Pen Rate
CLE	6.88	4.07	0.034	0.027	6.46	4.63	0.028	0.43
TEN	5.69	4.06	0.039	0.031	5.47	3.97	0.036	0.42
NFL Avg	6.12	4.01	0.032	0.026	6.13	4.01	0.033	0.37

But the symmetry stops there. CLE has a far easier schedule than TEN for the final four weeks, and that is why they are the favorites for the wildcard spot despite being a very average team. Here is how the rest of CLE's schedule shapes up:

Opponent	Win Prob.
at NYJ	0.43
BUF	0.59
at Cin	0.44
SF	0.87

TEN's schedule is far tougher.

Opponent	Win Prob.
SD	0.45
at KC	0.54
NYJ	0.63
at IND	0.12

The difference in the two teams' schedules is mostly due to their final opponents. CLE gets SF at home while TEN visits IND. The biggest uncertainty is how the Colts will play in week 17. If they have locked up the #2 seed they may rest their starters allowing TEN to have a much better chance of winning.

BUF still has a shot, especially if they can beat CLE (at CLE) next week. The Bills almost certainly need to go at least 3-1 in the last four weeks with this schedule:

Opponent	Win Prob.
MIA	0.69
at CLE	0.41
NYG	0.53
at PHI	0.30

It will likely go down to the final week of the season. Unfortunately, the winner earns the right to a road game at (probably) SD or PIT for the right to visit NE.

Luckiest NFL Teams Week 13

Based on opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP), the number of expected wins can be estimated for each team. Teams that have won more games than expected can be considered lucky, while teams with fewer wins than expected can be considered unlucky.

The list of NFL teams sorted from luckiest (positive numbers) to unluckiest is posted below. We would expect most teams to be within +/- 1.0 wins. So teams outside that margin can be deemed significantly lucky or unlucky.

Rank	Team	GWP	Wins	Exp Wins	Luck
1	DET	0.27	6	3.3	2.7
2	CHI	0.25	5	3.0	2.0
3	GB	0.67	10	8.0	2.0
4	NYG	0.52	8	6.3	1.7
5	CLE	0.47	7	5.6	1.4
6	NE	0.89	12	10.6	1.4
7	ARI	0.40	6	4.8	1.2
8	CAR	0.33	5	3.9	1.1
9	SF	0.16	3	1.9	1.1
10	TEN	0.51	7	6.1	0.9
11	PIT	0.69	9	8.3	0.7
12	DAL	0.86	11	10.3	0.7
13	OAK	0.28	4	3.3	0.7
14	NO	0.37	5	4.4	0.6
15	BUF	0.46	6	5.6	0.4
16	SEA	0.66	8	7.9	0.1
17	IND	0.84	10	10.1	-0.1
18	JAX	0.68	8	8.1	-0.1
19	STL	0.29	3	3.5	-0.5
20	HOU	0.46	5	5.5	-0.5
21	KC	0.38	4	4.6	-0.6
22	DEN	0.47	5	5.7	-0.7
23	SD	0.64	7	7.7	-0.7
24	MIN	0.57	6	6.8	-0.8
25	WAS	0.51	5	6.1	-1.1
26	BAL	0.43	4	5.1	-1.1
27	TB	0.77	8	9.2	-1.2
28	ATL	0.36	3	4.3	-1.3
29	CIN	0.45	4	5.3	-1.3
30	PHI	0.59	5	7.1	-2.1
31	NYJ	0.45	3	5.5	-2.5
32	MIA	0.35	0	4.2	-4.2

Season Win Projections Week 13

Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. As before, projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP). The projections account for future opponent strength (Fut Opp), and projected wins (proj W) is a total of current and estimated future wins. The methodology is described more fully here. Precise playoff predictions based on individual game probabilities can be found at NFL Forecast.

Team	Rank	Proj GWP	Fut Opp	Proj W
AFC E
NE	1	0.89	0.50	15.5
BUF	17	0.48	0.48	7.9
NYJ	19	0.40	0.56	4.6
MIA	26	0.30	0.56	1.2
AFC N
PIT	5	0.63	0.57	11.5
CLE	16	0.59	0.38	9.4
CIN	20	0.63	0.32	6.5
BAL	21	0.30	0.64	5.2
AFC S
IND	3	0.88	0.42	13.5
JAX	6	0.73	0.44	10.9
TEN	14	0.43	0.58	8.7
HOU	18	0.28	0.69	6.1
AFC W
SD	9	0.74	0.38	10.0
DEN	15	0.46	0.51	6.8
KC	23	0.45	0.43	5.8
OAK	29	0.14	0.71	4.5
Team	Rank	Proj GWP	Fut Opp	Proj W
NFC E
DAL	2	0.89	0.42	14.6
NYG	12	0.41	0.61	9.6
PHI	10	0.54	0.55	7.2
WAS	13	0.46	0.55	6.8
NFC N
GB	7	0.84	0.27	13.4
MIN	11	0.71	0.35	8.8
DET	30	0.18	0.64	6.7
CHI	31	0.23	0.53	5.9
NFC S
TB	4	0.87	0.33	11.5
NO	24	0.47	0.40	6.9
CAR	27	0.15	0.74	5.6
ATL	25	0.31	0.55	4.3
NFC W
SEA	8	0.76	0.38	11.0
ARI	22	0.48	0.42	7.9
STL	28	0.25	0.55	4.0
SF	32	0.13	0.56	3.5

Playoff Race Predictions Wk 13

For the rest of the 2007 season, NFL Stats and NFL Forecast are teaming up to predict the playoff races. NFL Forecast offers a free a web/java-based program that calculates playoff probabilities for each team and for each possible playoff seeding based on individual game probabilities. Check out the java program here. NFL Forecast is using the game outcome probabilities published here at NFL Stats as its default baseline.

The resulting playoff chances are published weekly here.

Game Predictions Week 14

Game probabilities for week 14 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

Vprob	Visitor	Home	Hprob
0.18	CHI	WAS	0.82
0.14	CAR	JAX	0.86
0.92	DAL	DET	0.08
0.31	MIA	BUF	0.69
0.35	NYG	PHI	0.65
0.12	OAK	GB	0.88
0.17	PIT	NE	0.83
0.55	SD	TEN	0.45
0.27	STL	CIN	0.73
0.73	TB	HOU	0.27
0.20	ARI	SEA	0.80
0.83	MIN	SF	0.17
0.43	CLE	NYJ	0.57
0.33	KC	DEN	0.67
0.84	IND	BAL	0.16
0.43	NO	ATL	0.57

Week 13 Efficiency Rankings

NFL team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule. GWP modifies the generic win probability to reflect the strength of past opponents. Offensive ranking (O Rank) is based on each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. D Rank is vice-versa. Rankings are based on a logistic regression model applied to data through week 12. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.

Rank	Team	Last Wk	GWP	Opp GWP	O Rank	D Rank
1	NE	1	0.89	0.54	1	5
2	DAL	3	0.86	0.51	2	4
3	IND	2	0.84	0.54	5	1
4	TB	4	0.77	0.47	4	7
5	PIT	5	0.69	0.43	15	2
6	JAX	7	0.68	0.55	3	20
7	GB	6	0.67	0.50	6	13
8	SEA	8	0.66	0.41	12	11
9	SD	10	0.64	0.52	13	6
10	PHI	9	0.59	0.54	8	19
11	MIN	13	0.57	0.48	10	14
12	NYG	11	0.52	0.49	21	9
13	WAS	12	0.51	0.57	22	8
14	TEN	15	0.51	0.51	25	3
15	DEN	14	0.47	0.50	11	31
16	CLE	17	0.47	0.50	7	30
17	BUF	19	0.46	0.59	17	17
18	HOU	16	0.46	0.48	16	28
19	NYJ	24	0.45	0.55	19	24
20	CIN	20	0.45	0.54	9	29
21	BAL	26	0.43	0.48	24	12
22	ARI	23	0.40	0.43	18	16
23	KC	21	0.38	0.52	31	10
24	NO	25	0.37	0.51	14	32
25	ATL	22	0.36	0.49	20	22
26	MIA	18	0.35	0.55	23	23
27	CAR	28	0.33	0.46	27	15
28	STL	30	0.29	0.47	28	21
29	OAK	29	0.28	0.43	29	25
30	DET	27	0.27	0.49	26	18
31	CHI	31	0.25	0.51	30	27
32	SF	32	0.16	0.45	32	26

How the Ravens Can Beat the Patriots

Simple--Never punt.

I might go a step further and say, "Never kick a FG" (unless it provides a lead in the final 3 minutes of the game).

What do they have to lose?

QB Rating Week 12

The QB Wins Added Per 16 Games stat (+WP16) estimates how many wins a quarterback adds to his team's record over the course of a 16-game season. +WP16 is explained here and here. Last year's ratings can be found in the second link. Here is the list of 2007 QBs and their vital stats through week 12. Air Yards is the yards passed forward of the line of scrimmage not including WR yards after catch (YAC). TO% is total turnovers (fumbles and interceptions) per pass attempt, sack, or rush.

Rank	Name	QBR	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	Rush	Yds	Sk Yds	Air Yds	TO %	+WP16
1	Brady	127.9	392	72.4	3439	8.8	22	64	80	1978	1.4	3.30
2	Garrard	103.1	209	65.1	1626	7.8	36	145	77	987	0.4	2.92
3	Romo	107.1	382	66.0	3352	8.8	22	86	118	2002	4.0	2.11
4	Anderson	89.5	365	58.1	2758	7.6	24	51	84	1714	3.3	1.76
5	Schaub	87.3	284	66.5	2207	7.8	17	52	119	1423	4.0	1.53
6	Warner	90.8	254	62.2	2009	7.9	11	-4	89	1304	4.3	1.45
7	Garcia	96.0	282	64.5	2135	7.6	34	116	84	1094	1.4	1.45
8	Manning P	89.4	379	63.3	2821	7.4	14	-9	101	1783	3.5	1.42
9	Roethlisberger	106.0	288	67.0	2380	8.3	21	141	254	1487	3.8	1.15
10	Palmer	90.8	418	67.5	3076	7.4	15	15	100	1860	3.8	1.10
11	Cutler	89.6	300	64.7	2384	7.9	28	121	93	1303	3.9	0.89
12	Hasselbeck	89.6	402	62.4	2887	7.2	27	55	133	1575	2.4	0.76
13	Delhomme	111.8	86	64.0	624	7.3	6	26	46	311	1.5	0.72
14	Favre	97.9	439	67.4	3412	7.8	22	-6	89	1685	2.9	0.56
15	McNabb	87.3	326	59.8	2329	7.1	30	135	151	1179	2.3	0.35
16	Campbell	79.1	364	60.2	2384	6.5	31	169	96	1341	3.8	0.28
17	Brees	85.0	456	67.3	2997	6.6	15	52	64	1634	3.7	0.26
18	Kitna	87.4	381	65.4	2897	7.6	21	55	264	1751	3.9	0.24
19	Pennington	87.5	190	67.4	1317	6.9	17	23	102	819	3.6	0.21
20	Boller	74.6	208	59.6	1242	6.0	9	41	113	764	3.0	-0.06
21	Jackson	62.8	144	54.2	900	6.3	21	122	30	474	4.0	-0.18
22	Testaverde	69.8	118	54.2	699	5.9	5	28	28	389	3.5	-0.23
23	Young	65.3	264	61.4	1663	6.3	68	297	96	926	4.6	-0.44
24	Harrington	79.7	314	63.1	2031	6.5	14	33	169	980	2.0	-0.48
25	Manning E	75.0	371	58.5	2376	6.4	20	46	144	1338	4.3	-0.61
26	Losman	76.9	175	63.4	1204	6.9	20	110	103	596	3.8	-0.61
27	Bulger	73.3	279	60.9	1789	6.4	7	14	211	1087	3.7	-0.61
28	Culpepper	78.0	186	58.1	1331	7.2	20	40	130	750	4.0	-0.64
29	Rivers	81.1	330	61.2	2301	7.0	23	31	107	1216	4.6	-0.66
30	Lemon	69.4	166	57.8	923	5.6	18	70	86	482	2.6	-0.73
31	Green	72.6	141	60.3	987	7.0	7	32	53	515	5.2	-0.81
32	Smith	57.2	193	48.7	914	4.7	13	89	121	595	3.1	-0.83
33	Huard	74.7	262	62.2	1766	6.7	9	-1	166	951	4.2	-1.18
34	Clemens	56.9	159	49.1	892	5.6	13	71	80	469	3.8	-1.22
35	McNair	73.9	205	64.9	1113	5.4	10	32	85	568	3.5	-1.41
36	Griese	77.1	217	61.8	1508	6.9	9	16	101	730	5.4	-1.71
37	Grossman	63.3	173	54.9	1101	6.4	14	27	146	633	4.9	-1.74
38	Carr	58.3	136	53.7	635	4.7	17	59	74	315	3.3	-2.04
39	Dilfer	62.8	171	53.8	950	5.6	5	25	138	517	5.1	-2.54
40	McCown J	59.5	122	58.2	760	6.2	19	99	78	348	8.5	-3.71