Game probabilities for the NFL wildcard playoff round are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength. Click here for a sortable comparison of playoff team stats.
| V Prob | Game | H Prob |
|---|---|---|
| 0.55 |  JAX at PIT  | 0.45 |
| 0.31 |  TEN at SD  | 0.69 |
| 0.36 |  WAS at SEA  | 0.64 |
| 0.22 |  NYG at TB  | 0.78 |
I'm in a playoff pick 'em and I sent that same set of predictions in a few hours before you posted this. I'm glad the numbers agree with me.
I know that "defense wins championships," but I have a hard time believing that the TN-SD game will be closer than the NYG-TB game.
Sagarin's predictions (133-99 ATS this year):
JAX (line = 0) over PIT by 1
SD (-10) over TN by 10
SEA (-3) over WAS by 1
TB (-2.5) over NYG by .09
I think the following post answers your concern. Sort the table by offensive pass efficiency and interception rate to see how the Giants stack up.
I'm not saying Sagarin is wrong, but that's why the efficiency model has TB as strong favorites NYG.
By the way, if at the beginning of the season you made me guess which team would finish 5-11 and fire its coach, BAL or NYG, I would have been wrong! And as requested, how do you like the sortable tables?
I realize that you're trying to distract me w/ fancy tables and tales of woe. Mission complete.
What happens to the Redskins' likelihood if you use only the games played by Todd Collins for data?
Including Wk 17 data:
NYG at TB 0.22 0.78
JAX at PIT 0.55 0.45
WAS at SEA 0.36 0.64
TEN at SD 0.37 0.63
Your blog is a fantastic read!
Though you might like this link. I was always wondering, if defense does indeed win championships. It does not appear to be a truthful statement.
http://www.maa.org/mathland/mathtrek_09_11_06.html
Bytore-Thanks, and thanks for the link. Very interesting. From what I've seen, I'd agree good offenses usually trump good defenses.
Offensive quality is spread further than defensive quality. In simple terms, offenses range from very rich to very poor, while defenses tend to be middle-class. So the "best" offenses are usually better than the "best" defenses. But every now and then an outlier defense comes along and dominates.
Someone asked what would the WAS-SEA game odds be if we only used Todd Collins' stats for WAS.
Collins has had a remarkable run over the past few games. He's passed for 7.99 yards per attempt (including sack yds) without any interceptions. That's better than Romo, Manning, or Brady. As unrealistic as it would be for him to continue at that pace, the game odds would be 0.67 to 0.33 in favor of WAS.
To break even at a 0.50/0.50 chance, the Redskins would need about 7.1 yds per attempt from Collins, which is not unrealistic.