Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 12

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort:

RANK	TEAM	LAST WK	GWP	Opp GWP	O RANK	D RANK
1	IND	1	0.80	0.47	2	5
2	NO	2	0.79	0.42	1	14
3	NE	4	0.74	0.50	4	12
4	SD	8	0.74	0.51	5	17
5	PIT	3	0.74	0.47	9	4
6	PHI	6	0.71	0.49	10	1
7	NYG	10	0.70	0.50	7	9
8	DAL	5	0.67	0.49	3	21
9	MIN	11	0.67	0.41	6	22
10	DEN	7	0.66	0.57	16	3
11	CIN	9	0.62	0.52	15	6
12	GB	12	0.62	0.42	11	8
13	BAL	13	0.61	0.53	12	11
14	HOU	14	0.54	0.47	8	26
15	NYJ	15	0.53	0.50	24	2
16	ARI	16	0.50	0.47	17	18
17	WAS	19	0.49	0.45	19	10
18	ATL	18	0.45	0.55	13	27
19	TEN	20	0.44	0.55	18	20
20	JAC	17	0.44	0.45	14	30
21	SF	23	0.42	0.51	25	7
22	CAR	21	0.41	0.50	26	13
23	CHI	22	0.41	0.47	20	16
24	MIA	25	0.40	0.56	21	23
25	SEA	24	0.37	0.48	23	19
26	BUF	26	0.35	0.46	27	15
27	STL	27	0.26	0.53	22	28
28	KC	29	0.23	0.55	29	29
29	TB	28	0.22	0.59	30	25
30	OAK	30	0.20	0.57	31	24
31	DET	31	0.17	0.51	28	32
32	CLE	32	0.12	0.54	32	31

And here are the sortable raw team efficiency stats. Passing, running, and penalties are in yards per relevant play. Fumbles and interception stats are in turnovers per relevant play.

TEAM	OPASS	ORUN	OINT%	OFUM%	DPASS	DRUN	DINT%	PENRATE
ARI	6.5	4.1	3.0	1.4	6.1	4.3	2.9	0.45
ATL	6.2	4.4	3.5	0.8	6.9	4.5	2.3	0.34
BAL	6.6	4.2	2.4	0.6	6.4	3.5	3.4	0.53
BUF	5.5	4.0	4.5	0.9	5.7	4.9	5.1	0.45
CAR	5.4	5.0	4.9	1.9	5.8	4.7	3.6	0.35
CHI	6.0	4.0	4.7	1.3	5.8	4.3	3.1	0.46
CIN	6.3	4.0	2.6	1.3	5.8	3.8	3.3	0.39
CLE	4.2	3.7	5.0	1.1	7.3	4.6	1.9	0.36
DAL	7.1	5.0	2.1	1.0	6.0	4.1	1.9	0.48
DEN	6.0	4.4	1.8	1.3	5.6	4.0	2.4	0.36
DET	5.2	3.9	4.7	1.0	7.5	4.5	1.7	0.44
GB	6.6	4.5	1.5	0.6	5.8	3.7	4.5	0.54
HOU	7.4	3.3	2.5	1.3	6.2	4.8	2.4	0.44
IND	7.9	3.8	2.6	0.6	5.5	4.1	2.9	0.31
JAC	6.2	4.8	1.8	1.0	7.1	4.2	2.7	0.30
KC	4.9	3.6	1.9	1.7	7.1	4.5	2.1	0.33
MIA	5.0	4.7	2.0	0.9	6.7	4.1	2.8	0.33
MIN	7.2	4.2	0.9	0.9	5.9	3.9	2.0	0.34
NE	7.2	4.0	1.5	0.7	5.6	4.4	4.1	0.40
NO	8.0	4.8	2.8	0.9	5.5	4.6	5.4	0.39
NYG	7.1	4.3	2.7	0.9	5.6	4.3	2.7	0.45
NYJ	5.8	4.7	6.4	1.2	5.3	4.0	2.1	0.35
OAK	4.2	3.9	4.5	1.2	6.7	4.4	2.4	0.36
PHI	6.5	4.6	2.3	0.8	5.3	3.9	4.6	0.48
PIT	7.1	4.2	2.9	1.1	5.4	3.4	2.2	0.40
SD	7.3	3.5	1.9	0.0	5.8	4.2	3.1	0.32
SF	5.2	4.5	2.9	0.7	6.4	3.5	2.9	0.42
SEA	5.7	3.7	2.3	1.2	6.3	4.3	2.3	0.39
STL	5.2	4.6	2.7	1.1	7.2	4.7	2.5	0.43
TB	4.8	4.2	4.9	2.3	7.1	4.9	4.3	0.35
TEN	5.6	5.3	3.5	1.8	6.6	4.4	2.8	0.39
WAS	6.0	4.0	2.9	1.0	5.3	4.4	2.2	0.40
Avg	6.1	4.2	3.0	1.1	6.2	4.2	3.0	0.40